Analyst: Russia’s Syria withdrawal offers little to Israel, but could improve Ukraine ties

December 19, 2024 by No Comments

As Russia’s influence in Syria wanes, a path to improved Israeli-Ukrainian relations may have opened. This is prompting calls for increased Israeli support for Ukraine.

Yuli Edelstein, head of Israel’s Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, advocates for stronger Israeli involvement, arguing that the changing geopolitical landscape necessitates a shift in Israel’s approach. He highlights the strategic alliance between Russia and Iran, suggesting that the altered power balance requires Israel to take a firmer stance.

Edelstein emphasizes the significant role of Iranian weapons, particularly missiles and drones, in aiding Russia, believing that Israel should have been more supportive of Ukraine sooner.

Israel’s previous cautious approach stemmed from its delicate balancing act between relations with Russia and Ukraine. Russia’s control over Syrian airspace complicated Israel’s countermeasures against Iranian weapons shipments to Hezbollah, necessitating careful consideration to avoid provoking Russia.

Ukrainian Ambassador Yevhen Korniychuk echoes this sentiment, asserting that Israel’s cautious stance is no longer justifiable, given Russia’s diminishing role in Syria and support for groups hostile to Israel. He stresses the need for increased military cooperation and the provision of military aid from Israel.

Korniychuk highlights shared threats faced by both nations, emphasizing the potential for collaboration in air defense, especially against Iranian drones, a growing concern for both countries.

Edelstein clarifies that he’s not advocating for war with Russia, but for closer defense cooperation with Ukraine, particularly concerning missiles and drones. He points to recent drone attacks on Israel as evidence of the need for improved preparedness, arguing that earlier cooperation with Ukraine could have better prepared Israel.

An Israeli security official acknowledges the limitations of current Israeli air defense systems in countering mass drone attacks, a challenge shared with Ukraine, noting that opportunities for collaborative technological development were missed.

Despite the cautious public stance, intelligence sharing between Israel and Ukraine has thrived. Both Israeli and Ukrainian officials confirm a high level of intelligence cooperation, with hopes for expanded military cooperation.

Rebekah Koffler, a strategic military intelligence analyst, counters that Israel’s primary concern should remain regional security, particularly regarding Iran. She argues that the weakening of Russia’s influence in Syria doesn’t alter this, suggesting that maintaining a stable relationship with Russia offers Israel more strategic advantages, especially in managing the Iranian threat.

Daniel Vajdich, a Republican foreign policy expert, contends that the altered security landscape provides Israel with more leeway to support Ukraine. He suggests that a future Trump administration might be less likely to pressure Israel on this issue than the Biden administration, potentially creating an environment for increased cooperation.

The Ukrainian ambassador reiterates that the excuse of Russia’s proximity as a reason for caution is no longer valid, urging Israel to reconsider its refusal to supply defensive weapons and technology.