NATO is showcasing its naval strength in the Baltic Sea this month with war games led by the U.S. Navy’s 6th Fleet, involving thousands of personnel from 17 countries and 50 ships.

Of the nine nations bordering the Baltic Sea, Russia is the only one not in NATO. The aim of June’s BALTOPS exercise is to strengthen cooperation among the other countries to defend the region, particularly as tensions with Moscow rise.

U.S. Vice Admiral J.T. Anderson stated in a press release that this year’s BALTOPS is a clear demonstration of the Alliance’s resolve, adaptability, and maritime power.

Concerns have grown over the past year regarding Russia’s potential for harmful activities in the Baltic Sea region, including incidents involving cut undersea cables. Suspicion has centered on Russia’s “ghost fleet,” consisting of hundreds of old vessels, mainly oil tankers registered under foreign flags, used to bypass Western sanctions or engage in military trade.

There are also valid concerns that some of these vessels are being used for secret intelligence operations, intercepting communications, or sabotaging underwater infrastructure like internet cables or gas and electricity pipelines. Three crew members from a Cook Islands-registered ship, suspected of being part of the ghost fleet, are currently facing charges in Finland for allegedly damaging an undersea cable by dragging its anchor for 60 miles along the Baltic Sea floor.

Tony Lawrence, a naval expert and researcher at the International Centre for Defence and Security in Estonia, told Digital that the shadow fleet is increasingly important to Russia’s wartime economy, and there’s a growing recognition that NATO needs to counter it.

Following a more assertive approach by some NATO navies involving stop-and-search tactics against the ghost ships, Russia announced it would use its own navy to escort the fleet through the Baltic Sea.

Finnish Defense Minister Antti Häkkänen stated in a recent television interview with Finland’s YLE TV that while the Russian military presence in the region has always been visible, what’s new is Russia protecting its shadow fleet tankers in the narrow Gulf of Finland passage.

NATO governments are closely monitoring the latest developments in the Baltic Sea and preparing for potential escalations. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, speaking at a meeting of NATO’s Nordic and Baltic members, described the Russian threat as genuine and serious, noting a more aggressive Russian approach in the Baltic Sea region.

The Baltic Sea’s relatively narrow waterways, where international maritime boundaries extend 12 miles from the coast and Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) contain valuable fishing grounds or offshore wind farms, combined with heavy ferry traffic, commercial shipping, military vessels, and civilian craft, increase the risk that a stronger Russian naval presence could lead to conflict.

Lawrence told Digital that having more warships in the Baltic Sea increases the potential for miscalculations that could escalate, and that the risk-reduction mechanisms that previously existed are no longer effective because the NATO and Russian navies are no longer communicating.

Some question whether Russia even has the capacity to escort every ghost fleet ship in the Baltic.

Lawrence said that it’s an escalation of Russian misbehavior in the Baltic Sea, but in practical terms, he’s not sure it’s going to make that much difference.

Lawrence explained that Russia’s Baltic Sea fleet has always been the less important part of the Russian navy and has never been particularly well-equipped or large. However, it remains the largest national navy operating in the Baltic, with ships adapted to the shallow waters and salinity requiring specialized sensors. They also have expertise in hiding ships within the archipelagos of Sweden or Finland.

The Baltic Sea war games this month, featuring the U.S. Navy’s Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyer USS Paul Ignatius and the Blue Ridge-class command and control ship USS Mount Whitney, serve as a reminder to Russia of NATO’s combined naval capabilities in the region.

The presence of American warships will likely reassure some of the smaller navies.

Estonia’s navy recently brought one suspected shadow fleet ship into its territorial waters for inspection, and it complied. However, when the Estonians attempted the same tactic a second time, the ship refused to stop or enter port.

Lawrence said that this complicates matters for other nations because the shadow fleet is learning it can ignore NATO navies with little consequence, especially with Russian escorts.

Lawrence added that he doesn’t think NATO nations are going to back down and that they will continue to follow and challenge these shadow fleet ships, or even explore other legal measures, like requiring proof of insurance, to prevent them from transiting the Baltic Sea.

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