KAOHSIUNG, TAIWAN – Contrary to widespread media reports, China’s 13-hour simulated blockade of Taiwan, which began on Monday, Oct. 14, involving a record number of aircraft, an aircraft carrier, and naval and coast guard vessels, was not simply about “punishing” Taiwan’s new president for his comments since assuming office in May. 

“China planned the exercises in advance and would have carried them out regardless of what Lai said,” Elizabeth Freund Larus, nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council Global China Hub, told Digital. “The military exercises are intended to wear down Taiwan’s military hardware and personnel. The purposes of the exercises are to threaten Taiwan’s security to the point that the Taiwan people lose confidence in their government and to change the status quo of a Taiwan separate from China.”

While these reasons would justify the military maneuvers from Beijing’s perspective, Dr. Chang Ching, senior research fellow with the R.O.C. Society for Strategic Studies and a former naval officer, believes the broader context is being missed. Chang pointed to publicly available military logs from Japan that tracked both Chinese and Russian naval movements over several days prior to the 13-hour exercise.

A joint staff press release from Japan’s Ministry of Defense on Monday, Oct. 14, stated, “On October 11, 2024 (Friday), around 5 PM, the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force confirmed the presence of six vessels [four Chinese and two Russian] in the waters approximately 400 km (approx 248 miles) northeast of Okinotorishima Island (Tokyo).” These were just some of the ships identified, and Japanese press releases noted that they had been tracking both Chinese and Russian naval actions since late September. 

The location of these ships, Chang asserted, means they could not have been involved in the Taiwan blockade. “The real target is the United States,” he told Digital. “They were using a very old Chinese strategy called ‘encircling the point/striking the reinforcement;’ in other words, practicing ways to ambush the U.S. Navy if it heads towards an already held-hostage Taiwan. If China can convince the U.S. that intervening in any actions it chooses to take in the Taiwan Strait is not worth the risk, then Beijing wins.” 

Other local experts shared similar views. Taiwan’s Central News Agency quoted Lin Ying-yu, assistant professor at Tamkang University Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies, who argued that the timing of the military drills was an attempt by China to assess the United States’ ability to respond to simultaneous crises on the Korean Peninsula and in the Taiwan Strait. 

China’s navy, which, depending on the measurement metric, either ranks second to the U.S., has overtaken the U.S., or is on par, is a formidable force often dismissed as inexperienced. However, analysts like Chang, who has dedicated his career to studying military strategy and threats, warn against underestimating China’s naval capabilities.

China’s fleet boasts numerous smaller and more modern ships. According to the , about 70% of Chinese warships were launched after 2010, while only about 25% of the U.S. Navy’s were.  

Unlike previous exercises, Joint Sword 2024B did not involve a 24-hour prior notification, specific latitude or longitude parameters were not announced, and, adding to the sense of threat, no end date or time was given for the exercise. 

Despite this, the general mood on the streets of Taiwan during the encirclement was calm, with few expressing fear or threat to the media. Some view this nonchalance as concerning, suggesting that the Taiwanese people are accepting the inability of their government and military to stop China’s increasingly aggressive incursions, such as Joint Sword 2024B, which pushed to within 24 nautical miles of Taiwan. 

China’s large and well-armed Coast Guard also participated in Joint Sword 2024B. Many Chinese Coast Guard ships are essentially warships, including several 10,000-ton vessels equipped with 76mm guns and capable of speeds up to 25 knots (28.7 MPH). 

In a move Elizabeth Freund Larus described as “rather macabre,” and Chang called “a cynical reflection of their ‘abusive relationship’ mindset,” an image was released on the official China Coast Guard Weibo account (China’s version of X), depicting a drill route around Taiwan in the shape of a heart. The image featured Chinese characters that translate roughly to “Hello my sweetheart! Our patrol is our way of loving you.”

A recent poll indicated that 70% of Taiwanese expect U.S. assistance in the event of a Chinese attack, but some perceived the U.S. reaction to Joint Sword 2024B as lukewarm and confusing. 

“The United States is seriously concerned by the People’s Liberation Army joint military drills in the Taiwan Strait and around Taiwan,” spokesperson Matthew Miller said in a statement. “The PRC response with military provocations to a routine annual speech is unwarranted and risks escalation.”

The State Department Asia Pacific Media Hub issued a statement via X on Oct. 15 that read in part, “We have closely monitored the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) exercise, JOINT SWORD 2024B, around Taiwan. This military pressure operation is irresponsible, disproportionate, and destabilizing.” 

are asking why the State Department chose to use the word “disproportionate,” as Taiwan has done nothing that would warrant even a “proportionate” response. With just weeks to go before the American presidential election, all official comments coming out of D.C. are likely to be carefully vetted, which makes the State Department’s comments all the more puzzling. 

Considering that almost anything Taiwan does is seen by Beijing as some sort of “pro-independence provocation,” there are calls in Taiwan for the democracies of the world, led by the United States, to come together and prepare concrete reactions to China’s continual attempts to change the status quo, militarize the Taiwan Strait, and deprive the people of Taiwan of their hard-won democracy. 

Kitsch Liao, Assistant Director of the Atlantic Council’s Global China Hub, told Fox New Digital that it’s “imperative for Taiwan to provide an update to its National Security Strategy, last updated in 2007, to act as a North star, and to galvanize collective efforts toward peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.”