The unexpected downfall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime has created significant regional and international repercussions, marking a dramatic shift after a protracted 13-year civil war. Assad’s rule, long supported by Russia and Iran, has ended, leaving his former backers to contend with the consequences. The implications for these two nations, and the wider global landscape, are substantial.

Experts suggest Russia’s involvement in Syria extended beyond simply supporting Assad. Establishing a presence in the Middle East was central to Moscow’s strategy, with the Khmeimim Air Base and Tartus naval facility serving as crucial assets for projecting power. However, Assad’s departure jeopardizes these Russian holdings.

Rebekah Koffler, a strategic military intelligence analyst and author of “Putin’s Playbook,” highlighted the importance of this event. She stated that, “Syria has been a key battleground in the broader proxy war between Russia and the U.S. Losing Assad represents a strategic defeat for Russia, costing them critical bases in the Middle East and further stretching their military resources as they continue fighting in Ukraine.”

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Ksenia Svetlova, a senior non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council, characterized the situation as follows: “Russia has been exposed for what it really is—a power that overpromises but underdelivers. They entered Syria with ambitious goals, but beyond aiding Assad’s survival through the conflict and supporting Hezbollah, they achieved little. Post-war reconstruction never materialized, and with Russia’s focus on Ukraine, Syria became a secondary concern. Now, Russia’s abandonment of Assad reveals its unreliability as a partner.”

She explained that this failure sends a message to Moscow’s allies. “In the Middle East, Russia now appears weaker than the United States. Syrians are shocked that Moscow abandoned ‘Baby Assad,’ as regime opponents call him, to his fate, while the U.S. demonstrated strength by firmly supporting Israel during its recent challenges.”

Assad’s fall underscores Syria’s role as a focal point in the U.S.-Russia proxy conflict, as Koffler explained. “Before Assad’s fall, President Trump reportedly contacted Putin to de-escalate tensions, but Putin instead intensified his nuclear doctrine, signaling his unwillingness to compromise. Now that Assad, one of Putin’s key allies, has lost Syria, the balance of power shifts dramatically. With this loss, Trump may have gained leverage over Putin, as losing Syria weakens Russia’s regional influence and strains its already overextended resources. This could enable Trump to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine from a stronger position, capitalizing on Putin’s setbacks in Syria.”

For Iran, Assad’s fall represents a severe blow to its long-term regional strategy. Syria was a vital component of Tehran’s “Axis of Resistance,” connecting Iran to Hezbollah in Lebanon and facilitating weapons smuggling across the region through a corridor extending from Iran through Iraq and Syria into Lebanon.

“This is an unprecedented, historic moment,” Svetlova stated. “The network meticulously constructed by Qassem Soleimani has been shattered. If Soleimani were still alive, he would be appalled by the collapse of his life’s work.”

Syria’s war with Israel further weakened Assad, leaving the regime without crucial ground support. Hezbollah, a key supporter of Assad’s army during the civil war, could no longer provide sufficient assistance after suffering heavy losses to Israeli forces. Meanwhile, Iran refrained from sending additional troops to reinforce Assad.

An Iranian journalist, speaking anonymously to Digital from Iran, described the internal response in Iran. “Most Iranians are celebrating Assad’s downfall. For years, Khamenei and the Revolutionary Guard diverted resources into preserving the Axis of Resistance, depleting the Iranian people’s wealth. Now, with Assad gone, there is hope that Iran’s oppressive regional influence will diminish. This is a joyous moment for those who have long opposed the regime’s policies.”

“The Iranian people and the regime hold vastly different viewpoints,” said another anonymous Iranian dissident. “While the regime has largely remained passive regarding Assad’s downfall, possibly due to internal weaknesses or strategic agreements, the Iranian people are celebrating. Social media reflects a wave of hope and joy, fueled by the belief that revolutions in countries aligned with the Islamic Republic—past or present—could trigger a domino effect. For many, Assad’s collapse signifies the weakening of the resistance axis and a possibility for change within Iran itself.”

While Assad’s fall creates opportunities for a new Middle Eastern order, it also presents considerable risks. The surprise attack on Assad’s forces, led by the Salafi-jihadist organization Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) under the command of Abu Mohammed al-Golani, highlights the situation’s complexity. HTS, Syria’s most powerful rebel faction, originated from the al-Qaeda-linked Nusra Front but claimed to sever ties with the group in 2016. It remains designated a terrorist organization by the U.S. and other nations.

“Who will fill the power vacuum?” Koffler cautioned. “The rebels are not benevolent—they are the same extremists we have seen before. While they may appear in Western media wearing green shirts and giving polished interviews, the reality is different. Removing a dictator often results in worse outcomes, as seen in Iraq and Libya.”

Avner Golov, former senior director of Israel’s National Security Council and vice president at Mind Israel, believes there is potential benefit for both the U.S. and Israel.

“The collapse of Assad’s regime underscores the failures of Russia and Iran as regional powers. Simultaneously, the U.S. has demonstrated its strength by supporting Israel and choosing the winning side. This is a crucial chance for Washington to leverage its position and form a coalition of moderate Arab states—Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Jordan, and Egypt—with Israel, to counter both Sunni and Shia Islamist forces. This coalition could stabilize the region and counter the growing influence of extremist groups.”

Golov noted further opportunities. “China has largely avoided Middle Eastern conflicts, concentrating instead on its global economic ambitions. In contrast, Russia has proven unreliable in Syria, withdrawing while the U.S. backed its allies. This presents a unique opportunity for America to strengthen its Middle Eastern standing amid the collapse of the Iranian axis.”