Following a vote of no confidence on Monday, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government fell, triggering an early election scheduled for February 23rd. The chancellor’s three-party coalition dissolved last month after the Free Democrats withdrew due to disagreements over debt, leaving the Social Democrats and Greens without a parliamentary majority amidst a worsening economic crisis.

Germany’s constitutional rules, designed to prevent political instability, mandate that only a chancellor’s request for, and subsequent loss of, a confidence vote allows the President, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, to dissolve parliament and call for new elections.

The pre-vote parliamentary debate marked the beginning of the election campaign, featuring heated exchanges between party leaders. Scholz and his conservative challenger, Friedrich Merz, traded accusations of incompetence and lacking vision.

Scholz, who will lead a caretaker government until a new one is formed, defended his record managing the economic and security challenges stemming from Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. He pledged increased investment if re-elected, contrasting his approach with the conservatives’ proposed spending cuts.

“Short-sighted cost-cutting might offer short-term savings, but the long-term consequences are unaffordable,” Scholz stated, highlighting his four years as finance minister under a previous conservative coalition.

Merz criticized Scholz’s spending plans as burdensome for future generations and accused him of failing to deliver on promised military rearmament following the Ukraine war.

“Indebting the younger generation, spending money—and you didn’t even mention ‘competitiveness’,” Merz remarked.

Neither candidate addressed the constitutional spending cap, a measure intended to ensure fiscal responsibility that many economists believe has negatively impacted Germany’s infrastructure.

Conservatives In Clear Lead In Opinion Polls

Opinion polls show the conservatives holding a significant, though narrowing, lead of over 10 percentage points over the SPD. The far-right AfD slightly surpasses the SPD, while the Greens are in fourth place.

Mainstream parties have ruled out governing with the AfD, however, its position complicates coalition formation, increasing the likelihood of less stable governing alliances.

Scholz outlined several measures that could potentially gain opposition support before the election, including €10 billion in financial aid and previously agreed-upon increases in child benefits.

The conservatives indicated their potential support for measures to strengthen the Constitutional Court’s independence from populist or anti-democratic influence and to extend a popular subsidized public transport program.

Tax relief measures could also pass with regional government agreement; however, Merz rejected a Green proposal for energy price cuts, advocating a completely different approach.

Robert Habeck, the Greens’ chancellor candidate, expressed concern over this rejection, citing the growing probability of a future coalition involving very different parties within the fragmented political landscape.

“The next government is highly unlikely to have an easier time,” Habeck noted.

AfD leader Alice Weidel called for the repatriation of all Syrian refugees in Germany following the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime.