Reports indicate that Iranian military officials are weighing a preemptive attack on a joint U.S.-U.K. base on Chagos Island in the Indian Ocean. This consideration appears to be a deterrent against a potential military attack on Iran by President Trump, according to an initial report by the Telegraph.

Behnam Ben Taleblu, an Iran expert and senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, stated to Digital that discerning between genuine Iranian military threats and mere posturing is crucial. He characterized deception as a propaganda tool employed to strengthen deterrence and prevent a militarily weaker regime from engaging in combat. He suggested that Iran aims to avoid conflict altogether by issuing widespread threats, allowing its revolutionary foreign policy to proceed unchallenged.

Digital has been unable to independently verify the threat against the Diego Garcia base, located approximately 2,400 miles south of Iran. However, Iranian security experts have raised concerns that Tehran likely possesses, if not direct capabilities, options to position its weaponry to strike U.S. strategic interests at greater distances. 

Iran officially limits its ballistic missile range to about 1,200 miles. However, Ben Taleblu noted in a that the IRGC is suspected of having a ballistic strike capability of up to 1,800 miles using its Khorramshahr-2 medium-range ballistic missile.

Tehran also possesses the updated Khorramshahr-4 missile, also known as the , which is believed to exceed Iran’s existing strike range capabilities, although its full capabilities remain untested. 

Even if unable to reach a U.S. target 2,400 miles away, Iran has demonstrated resourcefulness in extending its strike range, including utilizing merchant ships and to enhance its long-range capabilities.

Ben Taleblu mentioned in his post the possibility of employing a foreign-procured container-launched cruise missile from an unconverted tanker or commercial vessel at sea, referencing Iran’s use of Russian and Chinese cruise missiles after the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s.

Furthermore, Iran could leverage its close ties with terrorist networks to transfer missile capabilities to conflict zones like Yemen, potentially enabling strikes as far south as the Indian Ocean by approximately 800 miles. 

Ben Taleblu noted that while these options would make Iran’s launch platforms, particularly at sea, vulnerable to counterstrikes, they indicate Tehran’s to strike beyond anticipated ranges. 

President Trump has recently intensified his warnings against Iran, suggesting potential direct conflict if it continues to arm the Houthi terrorist group, or . 

The potential U.S. response to a direct attack on its military remains unclear, which could have devastating consequences for Tehran, considering its demonstrated defense capabilities when facing Israeli strikes. 

Iran also lodged a formal complaint with the United Nations Security Council on Monday regarding President Trump’s “reckless and belligerent” threats, denouncing them as “a flagrant violation of international law.”

According to Reuters, Iran’s U.N. Ambassador Amir Saeid Iravani stated that Tehran “strongly warns against any military adventurism and will respond swiftly and decisively to any act of aggression or attack by the United States or its proxy, the Israeli regime, against its sovereignty, territorial integrity, or national interests.”