Following the 12-day conflict involving Israel, the regime seems to be focusing internally, rapidly increasing its repressive measures with alarming swiftness.

Kasra Aarabi, who directs IRGC research at United Against Nuclear Iran, stated that the Islamic Republic is quickly moving towards a “North Korea-style model of isolation and control.”

Aarabi informed Digital that “We are observing a form of internal isolation that will significantly impact the Iranian populace.” He added, “While the regime has consistently been totalitarian, the current extent of suppression is unparalleled and unlike anything previously witnessed.”

A source verified with Digital that “the repression has grown terrifying.”

Aarabi, who has direct contacts within Iran, depicted a nation oppressed by its own government. He detailed how in Tehran, individuals are randomly halted, their phones seized and inspected. He stated, “If any content is found that is considered pro-Israel or critical of the regime, you vanish.” He also noted, “People are now either leaving their phones at home or erasing all data before venturing out.”

He clarified that this escalating paranoia and apprehension reflect strategies employed in North Korea, where citizens disappear without justification and information is strictly managed. During the recent hostilities, Iran’s leaders implemented a complete internet shutdown to cut off the populace and disseminated propaganda portraying Israel as indiscriminately targeting civilians.

“Their aim was twisted,” Aarabi stated, explaining, “They intentionally severed communications to provoke fear and influence public opinion. For a period of four days, no messages were transmitted. Even Israeli alerts for evacuation failed to reach their intended recipients.”

He indicated the regime had a dual objective: to prevent people from protesting and to undermine the unexpected connection that had developed between Iranians and Israelis. Aarabi observed, “When the conflict began, numerous Iranians approved of the strikes.” He added, “They understood Israel was targeting the same forces that suppress and kill their own citizens. However, after the internet was shut down and fear took hold, some started to doubt the situation.”

Dr. Afshon Ostovar, a prominent Iran scholar and author of “Vanguard of the Imam: Religion, Politics, and Iran’s Revolutionary Guards,” asserted that internal repression continues to be the regime’s most dependable method for self-preservation.

He conveyed to Digital, “Suppressing the populace domestically is straightforward; it’s within their capability. Therefore, it’s plausible that Iran could evolve into a more isolated, autocratic, and oppressive state—resembling, for instance, North Korea—more than its current form. They might perceive this as the sole means of maintaining power: by significantly increasing pressure on the Iranian populace to prevent them from attempting to revolt and overthrow the government.”

Within the regime’s power framework, the consequences of the conflict are equally dire. Aarabi stated that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is grappling with an internal trust crisis and an impending purge. He remarked, “These actions would not have occurred without infiltration at the senior echelons.” He added, “There is now significant pressure to conduct an internal cleansing.”

The subsequent generation of IRGC officers, comprising those who enlisted post-2000, are younger, more extreme, and extensively indoctrinated, with over fifty percent of their training now focused on ideology. Aarabi noted that these newer segments have started to challenge senior commanders, alleging they are too lenient with Israel or even colluding with Mossad.

Aarabi commented, “Ironically, Khamenei established these highly ideological ranks to solidify his authority, and now they exhibit more radical views than he does.” He concluded, “He is finding it difficult to manage them.”

A purge appears probable, accompanied by the emergence of younger, less seasoned commanders who possess a much greater appetite for risk. This transformation could render the IRGC more unstable, both within Iran and on the global stage. With Iran’s conventional military strategy in disarray, its primary means of influence is asymmetric warfare.

Aarabi stated, “The three fundamental supports of the regime—militias, ballistic missiles, and its nuclear initiatives—have all been dismantled or significantly weakened.” He added, “This leaves only asymmetric conflict: terrorism targeting soft targets with the possibility of denial.”

Despite the regime’s harsh internal shift, Aarabi maintains this indicates vulnerability, not power. He asserted, “If the Islamic Republic felt secure, it would not need to oppress its population in this manner.” He continued, “It is operating from a position of fear. However, until the regime’s oppressive machinery is dismantled, public dissent will be muted, and a change in leadership remains improbable.”