Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing government is facing a significant political challenge, potentially leading to its collapse. A key ultra-Orthodox coalition partner is threatening to withdraw support and endorse an opposition motion to dissolve parliament next week.

Recent polls in Israel suggest that if an election were held now, Netanyahu’s coalition would likely lose its majority.

At the heart of the crisis are long-standing disagreements about military service exemptions for ultra-Orthodox (Haredi) men. While most Israelis must serve in the military – three years for men and two for women – Haredi men have historically been exempt, a policy that is increasingly unsustainable, particularly given the current situation.

According to Haaretz political correspondent Amir Tibon, “The real crisis shaking Netanyahu’s coalition isn’t just religion versus state – it’s the war in Gaza, and who will be forced to fight it. Discrimination against those who serve in the military is one of the few issues that unites a vast majority of Israelis – and they want it to end.”

Estimates place the number of ultra-Orthodox men of conscription age at approximately 60,000.

Amit Segal, a political correspondent for Israel’s Channel 12, stated, “The crisis stems from the war. Before the war, many Israelis already resented Haredi draft exemptions. Now, with the IDF short on soldiers, that anger has reached a boiling point.”

Segal indicated that Netanyahu’s coalition is considering October 21, 2025, as a possible election date, but warned that the departure of ultra-Orthodox parties could trigger early elections. He added, “It’s unlikely the ultra-Orthodox parties will topple the government – they’re in their ideal coalition,” he stated. “But if they do leave, elections in October are likely.”

In March, Israel’s Supreme Court deemed the draft exemptions unconstitutional and mandated government action to resolve the issue. However, Netanyahu’s coalition, heavily reliant on the 18 seats held by the ultra-Orthodox parties Shas and United Torah Judaism, is divided. The Haredi parties are insisting on new legislation to legally protect the exemptions, threatening to leave the coalition if this demand is not met.

Segal explained that the departure of these parties could lead to the collapse of Netanyahu’s coalition. “The prime minister has seven weeks until the Knesset enters a months-long recess and will fight to survive until then. But with a bill to dissolve the Knesset set to be presented next week, there’s no guarantee he’ll reach July 27 as prime minister.”

The bill, introduced by the opposition party Yesh Atid, led by former Prime Minister Yair Lapid, is scheduled for a vote on June 11. It requires 61 votes to pass, a threshold that could be met if even a small number of coalition members defect.

Meanwhile, former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett has announced his return to politics with a new party, tentatively named “Bennett 2026.” According to Israeli media polls, Bennett is projected to win 24 to 28 seats if an election were held today, surpassing Netanyahu’s Likud, which is expected to secure only 19 to 22 seats.

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