Poland’s upcoming presidential runoff election this Sunday is generating significant attention, with the influence of former President Trump looming large. Polls indicate a close contest between Rafał Trzaskowski, the mayor of Warsaw, and Karol Nawrocki, the conservative candidate.

According to the Associated Press, Nawrocki met with Donald Trump at the White House earlier this month. Furthermore, DHS Secretary Kristi Noem attended a CPAC meeting in Poland, where she voiced her support for Nawrocki.

Noem stated that Nawrocki would govern similarly to President Trump. “I just had the opportunity to meet with Karol and listen. He needs to be the next president of Poland. Do you understand me?” she said.

Andrew Michta, a Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center, described the election as potentially the most important in Poland since the end of communism. He cited the close race and heightened security concerns due to the war in Ukraine and Russian actions.

Trzaskowski, who has the backing of the current prime minister, secured 31.4% of the vote in the initial round. Nawrocki, a historian supported by the Law and Justice party (PiS), exceeded expectations with 29.5% of the vote.

The majority of experts and observers in the region consider the election to be highly competitive.

Stanisław Żaryn, Advisor to Poland’s current President Andrzej Duda, suggested that a Nawrocki victory would reflect the Polish people’s desire to oppose the current government’s liberal policies.

The conservative party recruited Nawrocki, who lacks prior political experience, to replace outgoing President Duda, a close ally of President Trump. The Law and Justice Party held power in Poland from 2015 to 2023, until the center-left Civic Platform coalition led by Donald Tusk won parliamentary elections.

While the Polish president’s role is primarily symbolic, they possess the power to veto legislation, which could disrupt the government’s agenda if the president and prime minister belong to different parties.

Matthew Tyrmand, a U.S.-based Polish dual citizen advising conservative political figures in Europe, stated that Poland would suffer if Tusk’s candidate, Trzaskowski, wins the presidency. He argued that closer ties with the EU would weaken relations with the USA, undermining Poland militarily and economically.

“This runoff is existential for Poland maintaining its multi-party democracy with the existent check and balance of the last 15 years of having, in essence, a two-party duopoly. The right-wing president, Andrzej Duda, has been the one check given his veto power to reject the Tusk government’s agenda since the country’s government turned over in late 2023 toward left-leaning (self-described and so-called by the compromised leftist media as centrist but in reality very left) Eurocentrists. If that veto is lost, Polish sovereignty will be a distant memory as Tusk devolves national competences toward Berlin and Brussels who have been his paymasters for nearly two decades, and he has been their ready, willing and able pliant stooge.”
 

Duda previously used his veto to block bills aimed at restoring judicial independence, a point of contention between Poland and the European Union under the PiS government.

Nawrocki, if elected, would likely continue the , potentially decreasing Tusk’s popularity if he fails to deliver on campaign promises.

A Trzaskowski victory would enable Tusk to advance his agenda, with the new president likely supporting his proposals and appointments. Brussels would also view a Trzaskowski win favorably, as he aligns with the EU’s priorities.

Michta of the Atlantic Council anticipates a challenging relationship between the Tusk government and a President Nawrocki, given their differing views, particularly on foreign policy.

Trzaskowski favors stronger relationships with Brussels, Berlin, and Paris, while also seeking stable relations with the U.S. Nawrocki, having met with President Trump and Republican leaders, would likely advocate for even closer ties with the U.S.

Despite growing criticism of continuing as the war continues, Poland’s foreign and defense policy and its support for Ukraine are expected to remain consistent regardless of the election outcome.

Poland has been a strong supporter of Ukraine, providing 5 billion euros in aid, including nearly 4 billion euros in military assistance, since the start of the war.

Since the 2015 European refugee crisis, Poland has adopted a stricter stance on immigration, especially from the Middle East, while being more welcoming to Ukrainian refugees. Poland has received over 1.5 million Ukrainian refugees since the Russian invasion in February 2022.

Matt Qvortrup, Senior Research Fellow at the Centre for European Studies at the Australian National University, believes a Nawrocki victory would impede further European integration due to his critical stance on Europe.

Qvortrup told Digital that a Nawrocki win would be unwelcome for leaders in powerful European nations, particularly Germany.

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