KAOHSIUNG, Taiwan – Following Pope Francis’s death, some in Taiwan are observing the upcoming election of a new Pope with growing concern. The Vatican is the only European country that has formal relations with Taiwan, and there are worries that closer ties between the Vatican and China could alter this.

Taiwan has a Catholic population of under 300,000. In comparison, mainland China is estimated to have between 8 and 12 million Catholics, with an additional 390,000 in Hong Kong, which is under Chinese rule. Despite this, the Vatican still recognizes Taiwan as the legitimate “China.”

After Pope Francis passed away, Taiwan’s President William Lai initially announced his intention to attend the funeral. However, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs later stated that Chen Chien-jen, the former Vice President and a devout Catholic, would represent Taiwan instead.

According to Ross Feingold, a Taipei-based lawyer and political risk analyst, Taiwan will likely be disappointed that President Lai will not be present at the gathering of world leaders. Feingold stated that because then-President Chen Shui-bian attended Pope John Paul II’s funeral in 2005, it’s likely that President Lai’s team inquired about his attendance at Francis’ funeral and that the Vatican responded negatively.

Since President Xi Jinping took office in 2013, the Vatican has been fostering connections with Beijing. In 2018, they entered into a controversial agreement with China regarding the appointment of bishops. This agreement, which has been renewed and extended multiple times, allows both parties to have a say in the selection of bishops. It aims to reconcile the state-controlled Catholic Church in China with the underground church that is loyal to the Vatican. Vatican representatives maintain that the agreement is religious, not political. Nevertheless, Taiwan considers it a warning sign.

China, which severed ties with the Vatican in 1951, requires all countries to end diplomatic relations with Taiwan before establishing relations with Beijing. Currently, only 12 countries officially recognize Taiwan, making the Vatican its most symbolically important diplomatic ally.

However, Thomas Tu, a Vatican diplomacy expert at National Chengchi University in Taiwan, told Digital that concerns about an imminent change in relations are exaggerated. “This involves more than just politics; it concerns the global Catholic mission,” Tu explained. “The Vatican has outlived empires and is patient.” Tu pointed to the Vatican’s relationship with Vietnam as evidence of this pragmatic patience. Although China and Vietnam lack formal ties, the Vatican maintains a high-level religious representative in Vietnam.

Pope Francis believed that engagement with China, despite its imperfections, was better than no engagement at all. He was the first pope to fly through Chinese airspace and famously sent greetings to Xi Jinping in 2014. During his visit to Mongolia in 2023, he also extended a “warm greeting to the noble Chinese people.”

These gestures towards Beijing have been met with criticism from within the Church, particularly from outspoken critics of China, such as the 93-year-old retired Cardinal Joseph Zen of Hong Kong. Zen was arrested in 2022 after China implemented a National Security Law that criminalized almost all forms of dissent in the region, which is supposedly an autonomous special administrative region. Authorities recently returned Zen’s passport, allowing him to attend the Pope’s funeral.

Zen and others view any improvement in relations with Beijing as a sign of subservience to an officially atheist regime.

Since 1957, Beijing, through the Chinese Patriotic Catholic Association, has maintained strict control over millions of Chinese Catholics. Pope Francis accepted some compromises with China, but the Vatican desires autonomy in spiritual matters, which may require a miracle to achieve under China’s single-party rule.

Some observers suggest that Beijing might eventually grant the Vatican more freedom, but any formal agreement would require the Vatican to sever ties with Taiwan, a condition China insists upon.

With a new pope to be elected soon, some in Taiwan are anxious about a potential shift, but most experts don’t anticipate any hasty decisions from the next pontiff. “There’s no rush,” said Dr. Chang Ching, a Senior Research Fellow of the ROC Society for Strategic Studies, “The Vatican knows how to wait, and China isn’t yet ready to grant the Chinese Catholic community the same rights that Catholics enjoy in most other countries. This rift of over seventy years is just a small moment in the Church’s long history and the even longer history of Chinese civilization.”

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