In a significant development, Iran accepted a ceasefire on Monday, following an attack on a U.S. military installation in Qatar.

The accord, brokered by the President, represents a substantial reduction in hostilities after 12 days of conflict.

Although the ceasefire appears fragile, analysts suggest Iran’s retreat indicates the severe damage inflicted on its military infrastructure by synchronized strikes targeting nuclear facilities, missile arsenals, and critical manufacturing sites.

“Iran is incapable of winning this conflict,” stated Danny Orbach, a military historian from Hebrew University. “They have approximately 60% fewer launchers. Despite possessing about 1,000 long-range missiles, their inability to deploy them effectively stems from a lack of operational launchers.”

American and Israeli authorities reported that the assault on the U.S. base in Qatar—the largest American installation in the Middle East—resulted in no fatalities and minimal harm. The strike seemed to be precisely calculated.

“The attack in Qatar was synchronized with U.S. forces and aimed neither to make a strong impression nor to inflict significant damage,” asserted Sima Shine, a former Mossad official and leading Iran specialist at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies. “Iran is determined, but it seeks to avoid a full-scale conflict with the U.S. They are also aware that blockading the Strait of Hormuz would have dire consequences.”

“Iran’s short-range capabilities have largely gone unharmed,” noted Blaise Misztal, vice president of policy at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA). “This includes thousands of rockets, missiles, and drones that cannot reach the United States, but are entirely capable of striking U.S. installations in Qatar, Iraq, Bahrain, and the UAE. The Al Udeid strike demonstrated this.”

Misztal further stated that Iran’s remaining weaponry is “sophisticated and far more abundant” than its long-range armaments. “The threat extends beyond U.S. forces,” he cautioned. “Iran retains the ability to target energy facilities, major urban centers, and commercial vessels throughout the Gulf.”

During a 2024 briefing, retired General Frank McKenzie, who previously commanded U.S. Central Command, cautioned that U.S. bases in the Gulf region are highly susceptible to Iranian missile and drone swarm attacks. He highlighted that sites such as Al Udeid are only minutes away from Iranian launch locations, allowing minimal reaction time—and advocated for a strategic redeployment westward along with enhanced missile defense cooperation with regional partners to mitigate the “tyranny of geography.”

While the U.S. relocated certain aircraft and naval vessels in anticipation of Iranian reprisal, Gen. Dan Caine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, confirmed that defensive capabilities had been reinforced throughout Iraq and Syria.

Analysts attribute Iran’s retreat to the immense extent of its damages.

Orbach elaborated that Iran is currently confronted with what military strategist William Tecumseh Sherman once characterized as “a series of unfavorable options.” He noted, “They lack the financial resources to reconstruct everything.” He continued, “They will be compelled to prioritize between rebuilding their missile program, funding proxy groups, or revitalizing their nuclear facilities. They cannot pursue all these objectives simultaneously.”

Misztal further stated, “Iran continues to be the foremost state sponsor of terrorism worldwide.” He pointed out, “They have previously schemed assassinations within the U.S. They have conducted global assaults.” Misztal also mentioned, “And they have significantly bolstered their cyber capabilities since the 2010 Stuxnet attack. Energy infrastructure, regional networks, and even U.S. targets—all remain susceptible.”

“Is it probable that Iran will sufficiently learn from these assaults to temper its conduct? It appears improbable,” Misztal concluded. “I believe their expectation is that, irrespective of the outcome or the fate of their nuclear initiative, they can revert to their customary aggressive tactics—employing proxies and indirect strikes across the region and internationally. This government’s foundation rests on ‘Death to America, Death to Israel.’ Such animosity is fundamental to its self-perception, and it cannot renounce it without sacrificing its credibility.”