Trump’s Gaza threat: Israeli military experts assess potential consequences “`
TEL AVIV, Israel — With the initial phase of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire nearing its end, Israel is considering its next moves, especially given President Donald Trump’s repeated threats to retaliate severely unless all hostages are released.
Digital interviewed several Israeli military experts to gauge their assessment of potential consequences for Hamas should the ceasefire fail.
“The only alternative is a resumption of the Gaza war with the deployment of all available forces,” stated Maj. Gen. Yaakov Amidror (ret.), former Israeli National Security Council chief and current JINSA fellow. “Since the Lebanon ceasefire allows it, we can utilize substantial forces within Gaza to neutralize Hamas. This is why Hamas hasn’t violated the truce—they understand a full-scale war is an unappealing prospect for them.”
On Sunday, met with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Jerusalem, emphasizing their collaborative efforts. “Our strategy is shared, though not always publicly detailed, including the timing of a forceful response. That response will come if all hostages aren’t returned—every single one,” Netanyahu declared.
Lt. Col. Jonathan Conricus (ret.), former IDF spokesperson and current Foundation for Defense of Democracies senior fellow, believes Hamas’s hostage refusal, along with regional politics and Trump’s potential actions, necessitates a more intense and unrestricted IDF military operation in Gaza.
“The objective would be to defeat Hamas and secure control of the Gaza Strip. I believe that Hamas’s crucial resource is humanitarian aid, and in the next conflict, Israel will aim to control its distribution,” he added.
Former IDF military intelligence chief Amos Yadlin similarly told Digital that “historically unprecedented is a situation where two warring entities, one actively supporting the survival of the other through provision of food, fuel and other essentials.”
He also pointed out that the Biden administration had “essentially imposed an embargo on heavy bombs, [but] Trump has already lifted this and won’t restrict Israel’s use of them.”
Israel received a U.S. shipment of 2,000-pound MK-84 munitions overnight Saturday, with Defense Minister Israel Katz stating this demonstrates “the strong alliance between Israel and the United States.”
Trump’s statements and actions suggest he fully supports Israel’s aim of militarily defeating the Palestinian terror group, according to Maj. Gen. (Ret.) Giora Eiland, former head of the Israeli National Security Council.
“However, this overlooks the fact that we’ve been engaged in this conflict for 16 months. The key remaining leverage, previously blocked by the Biden administration, is to cut off all supplies—equipment, fuel, food, water, and other necessities—to the enclave,” Eiland explained.
“This is the only action likely to significantly impact Gaza and might persuade the leadership to release the hostages.”
Meanwhile, the Israel Defense Forces has increased troop numbers and mobilized reservists in the Southern Command to prepare for any eventuality. When asked by Digital about Hamas’s remaining weapons, the IDF declined to comment.
Hamas initially possessed an estimated 17,000 mid- and long-range missiles, with mid-range missiles capable of striking targets 7-14 kilometers away and long-range missiles exceeding 15 kilometers, according to Maj. Gen. Tamir Hayman (res.), executive director of the Institute for National Security Studies and former head of the IDF’s Military Intelligence Directorate.
“Regarding Hamas’s long-range missiles, current capabilities are minimal, if any. Mid-range missiles are likely reduced to under 100, and for short-range weapons like mortars and drones, estimates are difficult,” he told Digital.
Hayman agrees that a decisive response might involve giving Israel free rein to use 2,000-pound bombs or greater latitude to demolish areas using bulldozers and heavy machinery to prevent Hamas resurgence.
Israel might also alter its fighting strategy to prevent Hamas regrouping by maintaining control of territories evacuated by troops in Gaza, according to Brig. Gen. Yossi Kuperwasser (res.), former head of research in the IDF’s Military Intelligence Directorate.
“Israel could adopt a different approach than previously used. Instead of seizing and then leaving areas, we’d maintain control, hindering Hamas’s governance over Gaza’s population and its ability to survive,” he told Digital.
A sustained Israeli ground presence would likely be necessary to fulfill Trump’s pledge to “take over” and transform Gaza into the “Riviera of the Middle East,” a statement made alongside Netanyahu at the White House on February 4.
Meir Ben Shabbat, head of the Misgav Institute and former head of the Israeli National Security Council, told Digital that Israel must pursue “the collapse of Hamas rule, the demilitarization of Gaza, and conditions preventing future threats to Israeli citizens.”
He stated these conditions are “essential to ensure this conflict is the last. To achieve this, Israel will need to resume fighting at a strategically opportune time.”
On Sunday, Netanyahu informed during a meeting that he would convene the Security Cabinet on Monday to discuss the next phase of the agreement.