Trump’s Re-election and its Impact on US-Russia Relations Amid Ukraine War
Donald Trump’s recent election victory as president of the United States for a second term has sent ripples through the global political landscape, as the international community awaits the implications for U.S. foreign relations, especially amidst the ongoing war in Ukraine.
Trump and his running mate, Mike Pence, have been vocal critics of the Biden administration’s support for Ukraine following Russia’s 2022 invasion. During the campaign, Trump pledged to bring an end to the conflict before taking office.
However, Trump has yet to outline a concrete plan for achieving this.
Pence garnered attention this year for his suggestion that Ukraine should cede the territory Russia has seized and establish a demilitarized zone, a proposal Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy swiftly rejected.
A Wall Street Journal report on Thursday indicated that multiple advisors close to the president-elect are now advocating for Pence’s controversial proposals from the campaign trail.
While Trump hasn’t publicly endorsed any specific actions, the Journal suggests that some advisors are urging him to pressure Kyiv to agree to terms that would solidify the current frontlines by creating an 800-mile-long demilitarized zone and allow Russia to retain the territory it has illegally annexed, roughly 20% of Ukraine.
There have also been suggestions that Kyiv should refrain from pursuing NATO membership for two decades, a stipulation that critics argue would appease Russian President Vladimir Putin.
A Sunday report in the Washington Post claimed that Trump had spoken with Putin, during which he advised the Russian leader against escalating the war. Trump’s transition team declined to confirm or deny the call.
Experts have warned that appeasing Russia by compelling Ukraine to surrender land and abandon its NATO aspirations would only intensify security concerns for Washington and its European allies.
“If this were a plan, then America is headed for global conflict,” Zelenskyy said. “It would imply that whoever asserts control over territory – not the rightful owner but whoever came in a month or a week ago with a machine gun in hand – is the one who’s in charge.”
Dan Hoffman, former CIA Moscow station chief, told Digital that officials advocating for these proposals need “to stop treating Ukraine like they’re the aggressor state.”
“They don’t need to be pushed to make a deal,” he said. “The question is how you induce Putin to come to the table, not Ukraine.”
“If you take things away from Ukraine … you’re giving away a lot of whatever leverage you think you might have,” Hoffman added.
The security expert highlighted the United States’ ability to provide Ukraine with advanced weaponry and to impose sanctions on Russian targets as its most significant leverage.
In an October interview, Kurt Volker, the U.S. special envoy to Ukraine during the Trump administration, told Germany’s DW that he believes Trump, upon entering the White House for a second term, would prioritize ending the war, further stating that Trump “would very likely go much further” in supporting Kyiv than the Biden administration.
“He would say to Ukrainians, ‘Here is a lend-lease package. You can borrow as much money as you need as long as you buy American equipment, and there are no restrictions on what you do with it,’” Volker said.
Volker did not respond to Digital’s inquiries regarding whether he still believes this to be Trump’s approach.
While some conservative figures have argued that Trump may intensify his aid to Ukraine to end the war by lifting restrictions on long-range weapons use, others remain skeptical given Trump’s statements from the campaign trail in which he suggested halting Washington’s flow of aid.
Sources within the NATO alliance, Ukraine, and the Republican Party on Capitol Hill have expressed uncertainty to Digital regarding Trump’s ambiguous stance on Russia’s war in Ukraine. However, Trump’s history of criticizing those who disagree with him has led sources to be hesitant about speaking on the record about these concerns with Digital.
A stark division persists among Republicans in Congress between those who strongly oppose arming Ukraine due to mounting security concerns over China and those who argue that supporting Ukraine is crucial to U.S. security as it weakens Russia, which has a close alliance with Beijing.
In a statement to Digital, House Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Michael McCaul said, “I have no doubt President Trump will restore American strength and stability on the world stage, just as he did in his first term in office.”
“He lifted President Obama’s arms embargo on Ukraine, heavily sanctioned Russia – including Nord Stream 2 – enhanced the U.S. military presence in Europe, and pushed our NATO allies to invest more in their own defense,” McCaul added. “Under President Trump’s leadership, I believe the Putin regime’s reign of terror will come to an end.”
Several conservative members of the House and Senate who have supported U.S. aid for Ukraine did not respond to Digital’s questions regarding the growing concern that the proposals being presented to Trump aim for anything less than better arming Kyiv.
Furthermore, several contacts Digital spoke with indicated that given Trump’s unclear stance on the U.S.’s role in the Russia-Ukraine war and the fact that he has yet to assemble his Cabinet, it is too early to speculate on Washington’s policy towards Ukraine.
However, one official with experience serving in the previous Trump administration cited steps Trump took while in office as his primary indicator for how the next commander in chief might act when it comes to Russia.
“There are three factors here to consider: What were Trump’s policies last time, what has Trump said publicly, and what do we know of his general approach to major challenges like this?” Richard Goldberg, who served on the White House National Security Council during the Trump administration and who is now a senior adviser to the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told Digital.
“Trump was no Russia appeaser in his first term,” he added. “Now, he’s said he wants the war to end, but that’s not the same as saying it should end in a way Ukraine remains vulnerable and Putin feels emboldened to invade another country.”
“He has largely remained vague on what an end state might look like, which is by design,” he added. “Putin knows Trump has plenty of levers to pull, both in support of Ukraine and in pressure on Moscow.”
“Trump’s best move is to keep his cards close and make Putin feel uneasy ahead of any negotiations,” Goldberg said.