(SeaPRwire) – By: Robert Kensington
Novo Nordisk, a once-mighty Danish drugmaker, now finds itself in the crosshairs of a fierce competitor. Eli Lilly’s growing dominance in the U.S. oral obesity market is casting a long shadow over Novo’s future, with Bernstein predicting a 33% downside for its stock.
On the surface, Bernstein maintained its “underperform” rating on NVO, setting a price target of 203 Danish kroner. This implies a significant drop from the August 7 close of 305.10 kroner. The brokerage also cut its 2026 – 2031 EPS forecasts by up to 15% below consensus, citing worsening market share losses to Eli Lilly. In the real – world business scenario, this means that investors are likely to see a shrinking return on their investment in the coming years.
Novo’s Wegovy pill, a key product in its portfolio, narrowly missed sales forecasts, coming in at around $497 million in the most recent quarter. This has added fuel to the fire of investor concern. Meanwhile, Bernstein expects Lilly’s Foundayo to take the majority of the U.S. oral obesity share from Wegovy by 2028. The REDEFINE – 4 trial of Novo’s Cagri – sema in February 2026 failed to show non – inferiority to Lilly’s Zepbound, removing a crucial pipeline catalyst.
There are some silver linings. Novo raised its full – year sales and profit outlook for the second time this year, reporting Q2 revenue of $11.98 billion and EPS of $0.94. A Texas judge also dismissed antitrust claims against Novo and Lilly, removing a legal overhang. However, these positives may not be enough to offset the long – term challenges.
Bernstein did slightly nudge up its price target after considering projections for coramitug, but the firm’s forecast of peak sales at $928 million is well below the $6.3 billion consensus estimate, indicating limited potential for this drug to turn the tide.
Institutional investors are already making moves. Teamwork Financial Advisors cut its NVO stake by 94.9% in Q2. With institutional investors now owning 11.54% of the company, the stock’s future looks uncertain.
The market share reshuffling is inevitable. Novo Nordisk will have to fight tooth and nail to regain its footing in the U.S. oral obesity market. If it fails to innovate and compete effectively against Lilly, it risks losing a significant portion of its market share, which could lead to a long – term decline in its stock value.
Author bio: Robert Kensington, an overseas entrepreneurial veteran with decades of real – economy industrial investment and expansion experience.