This year has made it evident that the planet has entered an overshoot phase—where global temperatures surpass the agreed-upon thresholds, moving into territory that poses mounting dangers for both Earth and human populations.

Recent global analyses indicate that average warming during the last three years has already , the limit nations pledged in Paris to avoid “if at all possible.” Yet these global figures conceal the lived reality on the ground. Regions including the Arctic, Central and Eastern Europe, and North America have already warmed by 3–7°C above pre-industrial levels. The duration of this overshoot—whether short-lived or extended—will determine societal stability for decades to come.

I acted as the United Kingdom’s Climate Envoy leading up to the 2015 UN climate summit in Paris. When negotiators convened, I felt certain a deal would materialize. This confidence didn’t stem from guaranteed success, but from over a decade of meticulous diplomatic groundwork already completed. Climate officers stationed in embassies, negotiation teams in national capitals, and years of discreet relationship cultivation had established the necessary foundation. The Paris Agreement demonstrated multilateralism’s potential when scientific evidence directs policy and collective survival takes precedence over immediate political concerns.

Ten years later, that landscape has shifted. Political climates in numerous nations have grown more divided and volatile. Intergovernmental trust has eroded, extending beyond climate issues to global cooperation at large. The United States’ retreat from steady climate leadership has served as a pivotal influence. The notion that one summit could produce universal agreement now seems unlikely. This doesn’t signify cooperation’s collapse, but rather that advancement increasingly depends on alliances among nations, subnational governments, municipalities, and corporations prepared to accelerate action.

We should recall that several key breakthroughs in the energy transition occurred prior to Paris. From 2000 to 2015, well before any global pact, governments propelled renewable energy into commercial markets via policy directives. European nations pioneered this approach, with California and China eventually following suit. Initially, renewables couldn’t match fossil fuels on cost. However, as market scale increased, prices plummeted. Presently, across much of the globe, renewable energy beats fossil fuels purely on economic grounds. Policy forged markets; markets revolutionized technology.

This reasoning remains valid. At this year, over 80 nations united in support of halting fossil fuel expansion. While these coalitions may not carry Paris’s symbolic weight, they gradually alter investment patterns, transform expectations, and restructure industries. Nevertheless, a distinct leadership void persists. Decisive, trustworthy climate stewardship could still transform the situation.

China’s part in this evolving scenario has been less vocal yet equally significant. Its clean energy rollout is occurring at an unmatched magnitude. Production capabilities, power grid growth, electric vehicles, and battery storage have become as critical as diplomatic rhetoric. China’s trajectory will substantially impact results in the decades ahead, providing real reason for measured hope. Yet worldwide advancement remains perilously insufficient.

Given this context, one might be inclined to declare the Paris Agreement a failure. Earth has surpassed the 1.5°C mark. , floods, and extreme heat are becoming commonplace. The toll from severe weather events—both losses and damages—is escalating to such levels that major reinsurance firms now caution that whole economic frameworks could become unsustainable if climate risks keep climbing unabated. Nations advocating for fossil fuel phase-out must now convert their aspirations into accelerated, more profound measures over the coming ten years. This is achievable.

The most significant shortcoming of the past decade may well be financial. Developed countries pledged assistance to nations grappling with climate effects while simultaneously developing their economies. That commitment fell short. Consequently, ambition has been limited across much of the Global South, and trust has been severely undermined.

At the same time, fossil fuel stakeholders have maintained outsized sway over policy formation. Stalling is frequently portrayed as carefulness. Caution masks inaction. Overshoot has redefined success metrics. It’s no longer measured merely by our mid-century endpoint, but by the peak temperature reached and the duration it persists. These two factors will dictate the fate of coastal urban centers, agricultural systems, coral ecosystems, ice masses, and societal stability as a whole.

Addressing this reality demands a comprehensive strategy. Climate action now encompasses four interconnected objectives: cutting emissions; extracting surplus greenhouse gases from the atmosphere; rehabilitating degraded ecosystems; and enhancing resilience.

Emission reduction continues to be critical. Fossil fuels remain the primary cause of warming. Carbon dioxide persists in the atmosphere for centuries, so even dramatic reductions now would mainly stabilize rather than lower temperatures. Methane, though, behaves differently. As a potent greenhouse gas with a much briefer atmospheric lifespan, its swift increase has accounted for approximately 30% of warming so far. CO₂ concentrations currently stand at roughly 427 parts per million, but factoring in methane pushes effective greenhouse gas concentrations beyond 500 ppm, up from about 275 ppm pre-Industrial Revolution.

Recent research from the Climate Crisis Advisory Group indicates that slashing methane emissions by 30% in the next ten years could lower global mean temperatures by approximately 0.3°C. Most of these cuts could be accomplished affordably with current technology. Paired with swift CO₂ reductions, this could prove decisive between a controllable overshoot and a hazardous one.

Restoring Earth’s systems—from woodlands and soils to seas and the atmosphere—is not ecological utopianism. It’s essential planetary upkeep. Moreover, resilience must become a core element of public policy, influencing how we plan infrastructure, residences, food networks, and medical systems. Climate change is no longer a distant threat; it’s an immediate reality that communities must adjust to.

The price of inaction now surpasses the cost of taking action. Each year of postponement magnifies harm and expenditure. The financial resources needed are available. What’s lacking is political unity and enduring leadership.

The Paris Agreement was never intended to resolve the climate crisis instantaneously. Its purpose was to shift trajectory. A decade later, the true measure isn’t whether it comforts us on this anniversary, but whether it continues to unsettle us sufficiently to spur action. Posterity will evaluate our subsequent actions.