For the first time in a decade, no hurricane has struck U.S. soil by the close of September. As the most intense period of hurricane season has passed, it is set to officially conclude next month. If conditions remain calm, this will provide comfort to numerous communities nationwide, especially since several hurricanes over the past five years have ranked among the most expensive in U.S. annals.

Although it may seem tranquil due to the absence of major storms so far, specialists note that the Atlantic Basin has experienced a fairly standard season.

Currently, we are observing the twelfth tropical system of the season, which aligns with typical patterns for this period. Three hurricanes—Erin, Gabrielle, and Humberto—intensified to at least Category 4 at their strongest point, with Erin and Humberto both reaching Category 5. However, these intensifications occurred over the Atlantic Ocean, not on land. The continental U.S. saw landfall from only one storm, the brief Tropical Storm Chantal, in early July.

“There are storms,” states Jill Trepanier, a hurricane climatology researcher at Louisiana State University. “They’re just not hitting land.”

Several factors contribute to this phenomenon. Trepanier explains, “This season has featured numerous interacting elements working in opposition.” These factors include dry air from the Sahara desert, which contributed to atmospheric drying, and a high-pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico, which created unfavorable conditions for hurricane development.

Furthermore, the North Atlantic oscillation, a pressure pattern in the Atlantic Ocean that influences storm trajectories, has undergone a shift.

“When that oscillation pattern moves nearer to Bermuda, it regrettably steers storms straight towards the Gulf Coast and the eastern seaboard, a pattern observed in prior years,” Trepanier notes. However, this isn’t a fixed state; it seems to have relocated northward into the North Atlantic. “It fluctuates over a period of several years before returning. This governing mechanism has, fortunately, shifted to benefit those residing along the coast.”

Additionally, “upper-level troughing” has been observed off the East Coast, causing a dip in the jet stream that governs weather patterns. Charles Konrad, director of the Southeast Regional Climate Center at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, explains, “Systems already migrating slightly northward could be caught by these troughs and essentially propelled further north and northeast, thereby diverting them from the nation’s east coast.”

Specialists suggest that less active hurricane seasons naturally succeed busy ones. While climate change is indeed warming ocean waters and increasing atmospheric moisture, leading to more intense storms, numerous other elements dictate hurricane formation and trajectory.

Konrad remarks, “Looking back at the distant past, prior to climate change, we experienced both highly active and inactive years. There’s significant natural variability, and that natural variability remains largely unaltered.”

Trepanier observes, “In climate change discussions, there’s often an expectation that each year will surpass the last in severity. However, this isn’t how environmental systems function. There’s a perpetual drive towards equilibrium.”

It is yet uncertain if this signifies a complete absence of risk. Although the Atlantic starts to cool in late October, the Caribbean and Gulf regions, which retain warmth for longer, continue to pose a threat. This leaves open the chance for “homegrown storms,” which develop near the coast, similar to Hurricane Milton last October.

Konrad concludes, “We are now approaching the very end of the season, so the likelihood is significantly decreasing. Nevertheless, we cannot entirely dismiss the possibility.”