Dutch citizens are set to cast their votes on Wednesday, October 29, in what marks the country’s third national election in under five years, following the collapse of the right-wing coalition government under independent Prime Minister Dick Schoof.

The government’s dissolution occurred in June when the far-right Freedom Party (PVV), headed by Geert Wilders, exited the coalition due to policy disputes concerning migration, barely a year into its term.

In recent years, Dutch political discourse has largely been shaped by the ascendance of the far right, with Wilders’ PVV consistently topping national surveys since the previous administration’s fall. Given historical voter participation rates, frequently approaching 80%, a substantial number of individuals are anticipated to vote for the 150-seat House of Representatives.

Key details regarding the upcoming election are outlined below.

What led to another election in the Netherlands?

The snap election was initiated in June after the PVV withdrew from the governing coalition, alleging that its partners obstructed Wilders’ proposal to cease all asylum migration. This departure deprived the coalition of its majority, necessitating Schoof’s and his cabinet’s resignations.

Wilders had previously introduced a political agenda centered on stringent immigration and anti-Islam measures. These included pausing asylum requests from predominantly Muslim nations, exiting the European Union’s free-movement agreement, reducing foreign assistance, and ending diplomatic relations with Qatar and Saudi Arabia.

Following the PVV’s walkout, the coalition—comprising the center-right New Social Contract (NSC), the conservative-liberal People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), and the agrarian Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB)—was left with a diminished presence. In August, Foreign Minister Caspar Veldkamp resigned over divisions on Israel policy, highlighting the government’s fragility.

This governmental collapse occurred less than a year after Wilders’ PVV achieved a significant win in the November 2023 election, yet proved unable to establish a stable government. Wilders, who has been the PVV’s leader since its inception in 2006, relinquished his prime ministerial ambitions last year to facilitate the inclusion of other right-wing parties into the coalition.

What are the current polling indications?

In the final week leading up to the election, Wilders’ Freedom Party holds a lead with approximately 20% of the vote, translating to around 34 projected seats, based on aggregated polls compiled by various sources. While a minor decrease from the 37 seats the PVV secured in 2023, this figure remains sufficient to maintain Wilders’ frontrunner position.

The primary contenders include the left-wing coalition of the Labour Party (PvdA) and the Greens (GroenLinks), which is polling at roughly 25 seats. The center-right Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA) has seen a significant rise, now projected to win about 23 seats, up from just five in 2023. The centrist liberal alliance is anticipated to secure around 16 seats, while the VVD—formerly the dominant party and led at the time by current NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte—is polling near 15 seats, a notable decline from 24 in 2023.

Rutte served as Prime Minister, leading four Dutch administrations as the VVD leader from 2010 to 2024, prior to his resignation following a past dispute regarding asylum seekers.

Despite the PVV’s leading position, political analysts anticipate difficulties in forming a government. The Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA), People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), and the Labour Party-GreenLeft alliance have all publicly rejected participation in any coalition headed by Wilders, thus denying him a straightforward route to a majority. Ipsos reports that almost half of Dutch voters are still undecided, highlighting the unpredictable nature of the election.

What are the key planks of Wilders’ campaign?

Wilders’ 2025 campaign has centered on consistent themes: stringent immigration controls, opposition to Islam, and prioritizing Dutch interests. His campaign materials commence with the assertive statement: “This is your country! The Netherlands is full, overcrowded, jam-packed.”

He has pledged to halt asylum applications, prohibit the burqa and the Islamic call to prayer, and forbid the public sale of Arabic and “non-Western” texts. Additionally, Wilders suggests preventing government and military personnel from swearing an oath to Allah, a measure critics argue would largely exclude many Muslims from public employment.

Regarding domestic policy, his commitments include a 10% reduction in social housing rent, an increase in income limits for affordable housing, an expansion of caregiver benefits, and cuts to prescription medication expenses.

Nevertheless, the core of his campaign continues to be his anti-Islam stance. Wilders characterizes his objective as shielding “Dutch culture from Islamization,” asserting that only the PVV possesses the capability to preserve the Netherlands’ national identity.

What is the post-election process?

After the ballots are tallied, the party securing the most votes will typically be tasked with initiating coalition negotiations—a procedure that generally involves numerous parties and can extend over several months. Should the PVV emerge victorious, Wilders’ divisive public image and the unwillingness of prominent parties to ally with him might once more plunge the Netherlands into an extended period of political uncertainty.

These fractured outcomes are anticipated to reflect wider European patterns, where far-right movements have gained substantial public support but frequently encounter difficulties in converting this momentum into actual governance.