A new study published today in Geophysical Research Letters has found that the rate of global warming has nearly doubled since 2015—meaning we could cross the Paris Agreement’s target of limiting warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial temperatures before 2030. 

From 1970 to 2015, the global average surface temperature followed a steady upward trend, rising at an average rate of 0.2°C per decade. But this pattern shifted in 2015; over the past ten years, the planet has been warming at a rate of about 0.35°C per decade.

All 10 of the hottest years on record have occurred since 2015. Recent years have broken temperature records—2023 and 2024 were Earth’s warmest ever recorded, with global temperatures exceeding an average of 1.5°C in 2024. However, it’s important to note that to exceed the Paris Climate Accord’s 1.5°C limit, this level needs to be surpassed not for a single year but over a 20-year average. That said, monthly or annual breaches of 1.5°C are early signs of being dangerously close to the long-term limit, according to the [original source omitted].

The effects of a warming world are already being felt across the globe—from more frequent and intense natural disasters to higher temperatures. These impacts are only set to worsen: a separate study published earlier this week in the journal [original journal omitted] found that coastal sea levels are, on average, 8 inches to a foot higher than many global coastline maps and models indicate. This means hundreds of millions more people are closer to facing rising sea levels than previously estimated. 

The researchers behind today’s study adjusted their data to account for short-term natural fluctuations in global temperature caused by factors like El Niño, volcanic eruptions, and solar cycles. This allowed them to isolate climate change’s role in driving temperature increases. The results revealed a clear acceleration of global warming since 2015—with a statistical certainty of over 98%.

“We can now demonstrate a strong and statistically significant acceleration of global warming since around 2015,” Grant Foster, statistician and co-author of the study, said in a press release. “We filter out known natural influences in the observational data, so that the ‘noise’ is reduced, making the underlying long-term warming signal more clearly visible.”

The study also showed that the past decade’s warming rate is higher than any previous decade since instrumental records began in 1880. The study did not investigate specific causes for this acceleration. 

If the warming trend of the last 10 years continues, it will lead to a long-term exceedance of the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit before 2030, the researchers note. Stefan Rahmstorf, lead author of the study and a researcher at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, stated in a press release that the outcome will largely depend on whether ambitious action is taken globally. While global warming is likely irreversible over human timescales, studies show that if humanity reaches net-zero carbon emissions, further warming can be stopped.

“How quickly the Earth continues to warm ultimately depends on how rapidly we reduce global CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels to zero,” said Rahmstorf.