If you’ve been hoping for a white Christmas, take note: it may not come to pass.

Many folks recall watching snow fall on Christmas Day—but data reveals that a white Christmas is less common nationwide than most people assume.

A white Christmas is only considered official if there’s at least one inch of snow on the ground Christmas morning, when volunteer observers submit their reports. Data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration shows that from 2003 through 2024, snow cover on Christmas morning averaged just 36% of contiguous U.S. states. (This is because regions like the Texas Gulf Coast or parts of the West Coast rarely get snow in December.) In fact, according to the, there are few areas outside the Mountain West, northern New England, far northern tier states such as Michigan and Minnesota, and northern New England where the chance of a white Christmas exceeds 50%.

Generally, widespread snow and consistently cold conditions in the days leading up to Christmas can signal snow on the holiday, per the .

Yet while many Americans mourn the white Christmases of their childhood, the reality is that most areas don’t usually get snow in late December—people just believe they did.

“People often remember that one snowy Christmas but overlook the five non-snowy ones around it,” notes David Robinson, New Jersey State climatologist and Rutgers University professor whose research focuses on snow cover.

Pop culture—from Hallmark movies to the classic song—frequently references white Christmases, making the phenomenon seem more prevalent than it is. Snow also doesn’t linger as it once did, reinforcing the perception that December isn’t the winter wonderland it used to be. “Snow removal technology has advanced, so snow events today disrupt people’s lives less than they did 25-50 years ago,” says Robinson. “I think this leads people to believe there’s less snow because there’s less inconvenience after a snowfall.”

That doesn’t mean winter weather hasn’t changed over the years, though. Climate change is driving temperature rises across the country—and altering precipitation patterns.

“Decembers have warmed three to five degrees across the country in the last 75 years,” says Robinson.

A few degrees may not seem like much, but it can mean the difference between snow and rain. “As warmer temperatures are recorded nationwide, the odds of a white Christmas are declining,” says Pete Globe, assistant state climatologist at the Colorado Climate Center. “So there’s at least some truth to the anecdote that we’re seeing fewer white Christmases in many parts of the country.”

This is due to a mix of climate change and climate variability—the natural fluctuations in regional climate patterns. The Northeast, upper Midwest, New York, and New Jersey are some areas where this trend is strongest, Globe says. Climate change is also causing shorter, warmer winters. But that doesn’t mean white Christmases will disappear entirely. Some snowy regions may see more intense storms because a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture.

“Winter cold snaps never go away entirely,” says Globe. “So I don’t see the odds dropping to zero in my lifetime.”