(SeaPRwire) – By: Gavin Thorne
When Mallory McMorrow suspended her Michigan Senate campaign earlier this month, Democrats assumed her exit would help progressive favorite Abdul El-Sayed. But less than three weeks before the primary, new polling tells a different story. Rep. Haley Stevens is now ahead of El-Sayed in the Democratic primary. A Detroit News/WDIV-TV poll from July 8-11 found Stevens leading El-Sayed 48% to 41% among likely Democratic primary voters. Another survey by Tavern Research also put Stevens ahead by one point.
McMorrow, a state senator, suspended her campaign on July 5. Before El-Sayed entered the race in April, McMorrow was seen as the Democrat best positioned for the progressive lane. But El-Sayed, endorsed by UAW, Sen. Bernie Sanders, and others, quickly took that progressive spotlight. He ran on Medicare for All, labor, and Israel policy changes. David Dulio, a political science professor, noted, “Had El-Sayed not been in the race, McMorrow would have been the progressive darling. She got outflanked by El-Sayed.”
Outside spending is exploding in this primary, mostly for Stevens. Since early May, outside groups have spent nearly $50 million on ads boosting Stevens and attacking El-Sayed. The American Israel Public Affairs Committee’s super PAC alone spent over $25 million. Israel support is a key issue. Stevens defends U.S. aid to Israel but calls for a two-state solution. El-Sayed is a vocal critic, accusing Israel of genocide in Gaza and wanting to end aid. Michigan, with a large Arab American population, makes this issue central. Stevens focuses on manufacturing and Trump’s economic policies. El-Sayed leans on a progressive network, raising $4.57 million in the latest quarter—more than double Stevens’ $2.1 million.
Dulio warned against reading too much into initial polls about McMorrow’s supporters. A Data for Progress poll commissioned by a pro-El-Sayed super PAC had him ahead by 13%, but biased surveys are common. Michigan is a battleground. El-Sayed wants Democrats to focus on a bold economic agenda. Former Rep. Andy Levin, backing El-Sayed, said, “This could be a real change election. Winning purple districts isn’t about running to the middle.”
Author bio: Gavin Thorne, investigative journalist tracking special interests and legislative affairs based in Washington, D.C.