President Donald Trump states that skyrocketing gasoline prices are a “very small price to pay” as the disrupts global energy markets, pushing crude oil prices above $100 a barrel for the first time since Russia’s 2022 attack on Ukraine.

The conflict has heavily disrupted oil shipments via the , a major global trade corridor, driving up prices at the and risking damage to Trump’s ahead of the November midterm elections.

On Sunday, the President brushed off worries about increasing crude prices as a short-lived blip.

“Short-term oil prices, which will fall quickly once the Iran nuclear threat is eliminated, are a very small price to pay for the safety and peace of the U.S.A. and the world,” President Donald Trump on Truth Social Sunday night. “ONLY FOOLS WOULD DISAGREE!”

Energy Secretary Chris Wright also seemed keen to comfort Americans that prices will drop soon. “Energy will start flowing again shortly,” Wright told on Sunday. “The uncertainty that this could be some long, you know, drawn-out crisis [has pushed prices up]. But it won’t happen.”

Oil shipping halted

Among the wave of that Iran has unleashed across the Middle East, its de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz— targeting any ship attempting to pass— is a potent weapon.

Ship traffic through the strait, a narrow waterway carrying one-fifth of the world’s oil supply, has nearly come to a complete stop. The strait is the sole maritime route from the Persian Gulf to the open sea.

Since the U.S.-Israeli strikes on February 28, merchant ships traveling through the strait , while wider aerial exchanges between the U.S., Israel, and Iran also endanger vessels in the area. According to , only Iran-associated commercial ships have navigated the strait over the weekend. The last non-Iranian commercial vessel to pass through Hormuz was a Chinese-owned bulk carrier on Saturday morning.

“Throughout the strait’s recorded history, it has never been closed— ever,” JPMorgan Chase analyst Natasha Kaneva told the . “For me, this wasn’t just the worst-case scenario; it was an unimaginable one.”

Last June during the , Iran also threatened to shut down the strait in response to U.S.-Israeli strikes on its nuclear sites. Back then, Peter McNally, Global Sector Lead at research firm Third Bridge, told TIME: “The world can’t replace all the oil that moves through the Strait of Hormuz, which is still the most vital bottleneck in global crude markets.”

Prior to its closure, over 14 million barrels of crude passed through the strait daily. Saudi Arabia has to the Red Sea at unprecedented rates, though this route may also encounter issues from possible attacks by Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen— who have targeted ships in the region since 2023 to protest Israel’s bombing of Gaza.

Oil refineries attacked, output reduced

As the strait is effectively shut, several oil refiners are cutting back on operations. Kuwait, the UAE, and Iraq have lowered crude production because storage tanks are filled with accumulated crude.

The spike in gas prices might not be as short-lived as Trump and administration officials have promised Americans. Oil market analysts have that even if the war ended now, it could take two weeks to get Gulf maritime traffic back to pre-war levels and two months to return oil production to normal.

Energy production facilities in the Middle East have also been targeted, directly endangering crude supply. Oil refineries in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait have accused Iran of strikes over the past week. On Saturday, Israel four oil storage facilities and an oil production transfer center in Iran, per Iranian state media. Iran exports an average of 1.6 million barrels of crude daily— less than many of its Gulf neighbors.

On Sunday, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) threatened retaliatory strikes on energy sites across the region. “If you can handle oil prices over $200 a barrel, keep playing this game,” the IRGC warned the U.S. and Israel.

Qatar’s Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi told on Friday that Gulf producers will be compelled to halt exports “within days,” which would push oil prices even higher. “We expect everyone who hasn’t declared force majeure to do so in the next few days if this continues,” Al-Kaabi stated.

On Monday, following , Bahrain’s state oil company — an action that frees it from contractual duties due to exceptional conditions.

Even though China was to withstand energy disruptions in the region— including from the Houthis in 2024 that they wouldn’t target Chinese ships in the Red Sea— Beijing seems just as alarmed as the rest of the world. Last week, the Chinese government instructed its oil refiners to fuel exports, focusing instead on domestic needs amid concerns of a worsening global energy crisis.

Oil prices surge

According to petroleum analyst Patrick De Haan, oil prices already on the rise across the U.S. could climb even further. De Haan noted that a second round of price hikes is anticipated in several Republican states with price cycling systems— such as Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, Texas, and Florida.

In spite of the Trump administration’s claims that the war will end within weeks, the , , and Iran’s clear reluctance to have “made traders factor in the chance of a broader conflict,” De Haan posted in a on X.

White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers had earlier told TIME that Trump has “a solid strategy to maintain energy market stability long before Operation Epic Fury started, and they will keep evaluating all viable options and implementing them when the time is right.”

Energy market volatility is also spreading to financial markets and unsettling investors. As crude prices spiked, Asian and equity markets declined— with South Korea’s Kospi and Japan’s Nikkei indexes on Monday. If Gulf supply disruptions persist, the current oil price surge may last longer than the spike after Russia’s Ukraine invasion. Energy analysts warn that prolonged chaos could lead to one of the most severe long-term energy crises — comparable to when Arab oil embargoes and the 1979 Iranian Revolution cut off global exports, sent crude prices skyrocketing, and pushed Western economies into recession.