The Intersection of AI and Global Trade

(SeaPRwire) –   Despite the nonstop chatter about AI, there’s a striking absence of widespread announcements detailing how AI has increased profits. The explanation for this glaring quiet? It hasn’t occurred—at least not yet.

AI isn’t some intangible mist floating over the economy. The models driving future transformation rely on tangible inputs: cables, turbines, chips, and copper. These items are traded globally, which is why AI is already making a quantifiable impact on trade.

McKinsey Global Institute’s latest research shows that shipments of chips, servers, and networking gear required for data center construction jumped nearly 40% in 2025, contributing to one-third of global trade growth. The U.S., which made up roughly half of new data center capacity that year, saw AI-related trade surge by 67%—around $220 billion.

AI’s trade impact is so far-reaching because even a data center in Virginia using U.S.-designed semiconductors and large language models is a global product: it includes chips made in Taiwan, extreme-ultraviolet lithography machines from the Netherlands, Korean memory chips (often packaged or tested in Southeast Asia), Mexican turbines, and Chilean copper to power it. Simply put, that data center is the result of intricate global supply chain operations.

The plain truth is that even though AI is the future of technology (and it definitely is), it still relies on trade—the age-old driver of prosperity. This reality leads to a few key takeaways for the U.S.

Domestic Capabilities Form the Bedrock

American innovation laid the groundwork for AI—from the transistor’s invention to the transformer’s development (which powers large language models). Today, U.S. companies dominate global semiconductor sales and hold top spots in research, design, and process tech. These strengths make the U.S. a core player in global AI supply chains, not just a consumer. The goal of boosting domestic capabilities isn’t just to produce more AI inputs locally; it’s to stay an essential participant across the entire chain.

Via the 2022 CHIPS Act and other programs, the U.S. is taking focused steps to expand semiconductor production across the entire supply chain. A domestic chip supply reduces the AI economy’s risk of disruptions and helps U.S. firms participate in global innovation. But even with U.S.-made components, American companies aren’t operating in isolation—industry giants like Taiwan’s TSMC and South Korea’s Samsung are investing tens of billions in U.S. manufacturing facilities.

The U.S. Requires Reliable Trading Partners

That’s why the U.S. still needs trading partners it can rely on.

With demand for AI-related goods and services on the rise, securing essential inputs is critical—and not a given. For instance, high-performance memory chips are nearly all made in South Korea, and there was a shortage in 2025. Additionally, AI-related trade restrictions are becoming more common: Washington has tightened controls on China’s advanced semiconductors, high-bandwidth memory, and chipmaking equipment, while Beijing has limited exports of rare earths and related products.

To maintain consistent, dependable access to these inputs, the U.S. needs trusted suppliers. This is shaping a new structure of globalization. MGI developed a metric called “geopolitical distance” to measure how aligned trading partners are on key global issues. Since 2017, this distance has dropped significantly, as China, the EU, and the U.S. have all shifted toward trading with closer allies.

Why Trade Matters

Data centers don’t just need chips and servers—they also require basic items like nuts and bolts, air conditioning units, generators, cement, lightbulbs, and even coffee cups for staff. So while Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan are crucial for high-end components, strong ties with middle-tier markets like ASEAN and Mexico are also important.

Trade in goods isn’t the only factor. We believe AI leadership will also drive more service trade: U.S. multinationals might train models that are hosted in data centers run by American tech firms, serving clients worldwide.

More generally, to remain a global leader, the U.S. needs various types of connections beyond trade. Capital is one—foreign investment already supports key U.S. assets like semiconductor labs and data centers. Intellectual property is another: it’s vital to enable knowledge sharing, whether via licensing agreements or people-to-people exchanges.

How large will AI’s impact be? No one can say for sure. But what we do know is that AI is critical for driving productivity growth and helping the U.S. keep its global economic leadership position.

The key takeaway: To build a thriving, AI-powered future, the U.S. needs support from its allies—and compelling reasons for those allies to continue partnering with it.