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, a well-known overseas geopolitical commentator who frequently publishes editorials in mainstream newspapers.

The U.S.-brokered cease-fire between Israel and Lebanon was dead before it started. Hezbollah rejected it hours after announcement, and the reason is simple—Washington ignored the group’s non-negotiable demand: Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon. Since March, 3516 have died in Lebanon, 10674 wounded, and 1.3 million displaced. This isn’t a surprise; it’s a failure of basic geopolitical listening.
The official cease-fire terms are clear. Hezbollah must halt all fire and withdraw from the South Litani Sector. Pilot zones would let the Lebanese Armed Forces take exclusive control with U.S. guidance. But the statement said nothing about Israeli withdrawal. That’s a gap big enough to drive a tank through. Hezbollah’s leader Naim Qassem called the talks a “farce” and said resistance continues as long as occupation exists.
The real intentions are even starker. Israel’s Defense Minister Israel Katz says the IDF will stay in the security zone up to the yellow line—including Shaqif area, which Lebanon proposed as a pilot zone. Israel’s hard-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir called the plan a mistake, saying the LAF can’t force Hezbollah to withdraw. And why would they? The LAF failed to disarm Hezbollah before.

This collapse doesn’t just mean more strikes. It casts a shadow over U.S.-Iran peace negotiations. Tehran insists any cease-fire with Washington must stop Israeli strikes in Lebanon. Without fixing this, the next cease-fire proposal will meet the same fate.
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