The cost of Italian pasta in the U.S. is poised for a significant increase.

Following an anti-“dumping” investigation by the Commerce Department into Italian pasta shipments, the U.S. plans to impose an approximate 92% tariff on 13 major Italian pasta exporters starting in January. This new duty would be in addition to the current 15% tariff on EU goods, bringing the potential total levy to nearly 107%. An official informed the that this rate is “preliminary” and will undergo review over the coming months before its final implementation in January, should no adjustments be made.

Key details are outlined below.

What is dumping?

Dumping refers to the act of selling a product in a foreign market at a price below its cost of production or its price in the domestic market. This practice is broadly recognized as an unfair trading strategy and a type of price discrimination, often employed to gain an undue competitive edge. Occasionally, it’s also used to liquidate surplus inventory and avoid financial losses.

Such practices can disadvantage domestic businesses. If companies successfully dump goods and displace local competitors, they may establish a monopoly, subsequently allowing them to inflate prices.

Numerous nations and trade blocs implement anti-dumping tariffs on goods deemed to be dumped. For instance, the European Union employs anti-dumping protocols for imports, following investigations into whether goods sold at artificially low prices harm EU manufacturers. Recently, the EU applied anti-dumping duties on specific steel products from Egypt, Japan, and Vietnam. The World Trade Organization similarly outlines regulations against dumping, permitting member countries to enact suitable responses against firms found engaging in this practice.

Why are Italian pasta products being probed?

The Commerce Department initiated its investigation into particular Italian pasta products last August, prompted by a request from two U.S. pasta manufacturers, 8th Avenue Food & Provisions and Winland Foods, for a review of Italian exporters the previous month. The department sought sales data from July 1, 2023, to June 30, 2024, from Pasta Garofalo and La Molisana, Italy’s two largest exporters. Information from other companies that voluntarily provided data was also considered.

The agency subsequently released its preliminary findings, proposing a 91.74% anti-dumping tariff for La Molisana, Pasta Garofalo, and eleven other companies not individually scrutinized. The Commerce Department, akin to the EU, has the authority to levy duties through “adverse inference” if it deems companies supplied insufficient or inconsistent data during a probe. Here, the department stated that La Molisana and Pasta Garofalo “failed to furnish requested information” and were consequently deemed “uncooperative.”

Both Pasta Garofalo and La Molisana have refuted the dumping accusations.

These findings are provisional and will only be implemented upon the determination of final results. The Commerce Department has a 120-day window from September 4 (the date of the preliminary results) to publish its definitive conclusions, subject to possible extensions. Throughout this period, exporters are entitled to request hearings to address concerns or submit written feedback.

This Commerce Department investigation is characterized as a standard procedure. The anti-dumping charges are distinct from broader , which typically aim to correct U.S. trade deficits and secure more advantageous trade or investment conditions for the country. However, in combination, these measures could lead to exceptionally high tariffs on imported Italian pasta.

While the Trump Administration during the government shutdown, which exceeded a month, it remains uncertain whether the timeline for this pasta probe, regulated by Section 751 of the 1930 Tariff Act, will be affected.

How might this affect your pasta?

While most pasta consumed by Americans is domestically produced, with the U.S. being the world’s second-largest pasta producer after Italy, Italian pasta remains the predominant source of imported pasta in the U.S. by a considerable margin. Last year, U.S. imports of Italian pasta exceeded $700 million, accounting for approximately 12% of the total U.S. pasta market.

Barilla, the leading pasta brand in the U.S., is among the companies potentially subject to these tariffs. However, although Barilla is based in Italy, the majority of the pasta it sells in the U.S. is produced domestically, meaning these products would not incur the duties.

Luigi Scordamaglia, CEO of the food industry group Filiera Italia, informed the Post that roughly half of Italy’s pasta exports to the U.S. would be impacted by these levies. Coldiretti, Italy’s largest agricultural organization, stated in an Oct. 4 that these duties would unleash “devastating consequences for ‘Made in Italy’ products.”

Coldiretti projects that the tariffs would effectively double the price of pasta dishes in the U.S. and inflict a “fatal blow” upon Italian pasta manufacturers.

These tariffs have also become a source of contention for Italy, a nation with a long-standing historical friendship and key NATO alliance with the U.S., while has maintained a positive relationship with Trump.

Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani has refuted the dumping allegations, and the investigation has also caused tension in U.S.-E.U. relations.

E.U. Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič stated last week during a Rome visit, “We believe that this decision, in its current form, was not founded on comprehensive facts and figures, and we are exerting every effort to present this to them.” He characterized the duty as “clearly something which is not acceptable.”

Last month, an E.U. official indicated that the E.U. might launch a World Trade Organization (WTO) dispute against the U.S. if inconsistencies are found in the investigation, despite the probe currently appearing to adhere to WTO guidelines for trade defense mechanisms.

Šefčovič mentioned that he had discussed the matter with U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick earlier last week.

Coldiretti President Ettore Prandini declared in a statement last month, “We must protect and advance the pasta supply chain, in both the U.S. and Italy, to prevent the divestment of one of our exemplary products.” He added, “The American allegations of dumping are unacceptable and serve as a tool for Trump’s objective to relocate production to the U.S.”