Hurricane Melissa is forecast to strike Jamaica on Tuesday, bringing substantial rainfall and potential flooding to the island in the coming days. The Category 5 hurricane is the most powerful storm of the current Atlantic hurricane season and the strongest to impact Jamaica since Hurricane Gilbert in 1988.

This also marks the first instance in two decades of three or more Category 5 hurricanes forming in the Atlantic Basin within a single season. The last occurrence was in 2005, with Hurricanes Emily, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma all reaching Category 5 status, setting a record.

According to Charles Konrad, a professor at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Category 5 hurricanes require a convergence of ideal conditions to develop. He explains that typically, atmospheric or geographic factors may impede rapid intensification. For a tropical system to rapidly develop and reach Category 5 status, everything must align perfectly.

However, rapid intensification is becoming increasingly frequent. Research indicates that Atlantic hurricanes in the last two decades are more than twice as likely to rapidly intensify from minor storms to powerful and devastating events compared to the period from 1971 to 1990.

Category 5 storms, once considered rare in the Atlantic Ocean, are now occurring more often. According to historical data, there had been 44 Category 5 hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin since 1924 prior to Hurricane Melissa. However, 13 of these have occurred since 2016. The 2025 hurricane season is the fourth consecutive year with at least one Category 5 Atlantic hurricane, and 2024 saw two storms reach this status.

Recent years have seen record-breaking global sea surface temperatures, which contribute to storm intensification. Kristen Corbosiero, a professor at the University of Albany, explains that warm sea surface temperatures and weak winds above the storm are generally necessary for hurricanes to form in the Atlantic. However, she notes that extremely warm waters and weaker winds above storms have been prevalent in recent years, enabling them to strengthen.

Hurricane season is also extending, leading to more intense storms capable of holding greater amounts of water.

Corbosiero attributes the increase in Category 5 storms in recent years primarily to warmer waters and longer seasons. She explains that hurricane seasons are becoming longer because waters are remaining warmer for extended periods.

Experts suggest that the perceived increase in stronger storms may also be due to improved tracking capabilities. Konrad notes that historical data is limited by the absence of satellites and less advanced sensing technologies.

However, there is a consensus that climate change is likely to make more intense hurricanes the new norm.

Konrad states that climate change models project a higher proportion of hurricanes reaching major hurricane status, which is Category 3 or stronger. He believes that this year aligns with those projections.