Will Russian Oil Strain the Trump-Orbán Relationship?

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán made his first White House visit during President Donald Trump’s speculated second term on Friday. Trump has adopted policies from Orbán, and now Orbán is seeking something in return.
Trump seemingly gave Orbán a gift before his visit. The U.S. eliminated the recently reinstated program designed to provide accurate information in countries lacking a free press. The loss of RFE coincided with the announcement that Orbán’s allies had just bought a major media outlet, further solidifying Orbán’s control over the media landscape.
However, Orbán’s Washington visit has a larger purpose. As Trump’s stance on the Russia-Ukraine war has shifted, Hungary’s interests have been negatively affected. On Oct. 22, the U.S. Treasury Department announced sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil, Russia’s two largest oil companies. The action froze all U.S.-based assets of these companies and warned of further sanctions against foreign financial institutions continuing to transact with them.
Hungary receives oil from the Druzhba Pipeline that runs from Russia through Ukraine to Central and Eastern Europe, but paying Russia for that oil will violate the sanctions.
When the E.U. decided to phase out Russian fossil fuels following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Orbán used his veto power over E.U. policy on Russia to negotiate an exemption for Hungary, which remains in effect. Orbán will now attempt to negotiate a similar agreement with Trump.
It’s unusual for Orbán and Trump to have differing views on Russian President Vladimir Putin. Putin’s appeal to Trump has long been apparent and a source of confusion. Trump quickly arranged a meeting with Putin after taking office, greeting him warmly. However, relations deteriorated afterward.
Orbán, in contrast, still considers Putin an ally. Orbán is the only E.U. leader to have met with Putin since the 2022 invasion and has consistently undermined a unified E.U. policy on Ukraine, benefiting Putin. Orbán received the Russian Order of Glory and Honor from the Patriarch of Moscow, and Orbán’s foreign minister received an award from Putin’s foreign minister.
Because Orbán has a positive relationship with both Trump and Putin, Budapest was suggested as a possible location for peace talks regarding Ukraine. However, given the current unlikelihood of peace, the Budapest meeting was cancelled, and Orbán is now visiting Washington.
Orbán is seeking significant concessions from Trump at this point. Orbán faces an election in April with his first serious challenger in 15 years, Péter Magyar, leading in the polls. Orbán has already rewarded voters with pre-election benefits, such as an extra month’s pension for retirees and wage increases in the public sector. A sudden surge in oil prices would be disastrous.
Orbán has provided many strategies for Trump’s political success. Many key ideas in Project 2025, the plan the Trump Administration is focused on, mirror Orbán’s consolidation of power after his 2010 election. The Mathias Corvinus Collegium, an English-language think tank affiliated with the Hungarian government, was part of the Project 2025 team.
Orbán weaponized the national budget, cutting off funds to anyone who might oppose him. People retreated out of fear. These actions included media consolidation, the capture of regulatory bodies, judicial restructuring, and broad-based gerrymandering. Trump has copied Orbán’s playbook.
Orbán centralized all key initiatives within his office. Similarly, Project 2025 ensured that key policy areas—the budget in the hands of Russell Vought, the personnel system run by Stephen Miller, and the communications strategy of Elon Musk and his team—were all run from inside the White House. Executive authority suddenly displaced the law. State funds dried up. This was how Orbán consolidated power so quickly, finalized by a constitution that made it all the harder for Orbán to lose power again. Within a few short years, all effective sources of opposition were neutralized in Hungary. Trump is, if anything, moving faster.
So now Orbán comes knocking at Trump’s door. The Orbán-admiring Hungarian press is full of stories about how Orbán is staying at Blair House, the official guest residence of the White House, a sign of how much things have changed since Orbán was persona non grata during the Biden years. And while most American eyes will focus on whether Trump gives Orbán an exception from sanctions for living on Russian oil, Hungarians will wonder what Trump will give Orbán to allow him to win a fifth straight term in office next April.
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