(SeaPRwire) – By: Oliver Hawthorne
SPCX is near $150 and about to face its biggest Monday in years. The stock is down 3% in five sessions. That is strange. A company sending Starship on its first orbital attempt should be trading with adrenaline. Instead, the market is almost sleepy. The flight window is September 28. This is the 14th Starship flight. It is also the first deployment of 26 Starlink V3 satellites. Thursday’s wet dress rehearsal went through every step except ignition. All of that is known. The stock still will not break out. Heavy spending and broader market jitters are the obvious excuses. I do not buy that. The real reason is structural. Investors are staring at a company that could be a launch operator, a telecom network, a cloud provider, or all three. They cannot decide which multiple to pay. So the shares sit in limbo. This is the anxiety before a major proof point.
Wall Street has not walked away. Mizuho’s Brett Linzey reiterates a Buy rating with a $200 target. He points to a hosting deal that starts December 1. The high end could bring in roughly $1.11 billion per month. That is not a rumor. That is recurring revenue visibility for SpaceX’s compute capacity. Management also laid out a pricing framework at a recent industry conference. The target is $30 to $50 per watt in 2027. Current pricing is already near the top of that range. That matters. It means SpaceX thinks it can hold pricing power while volume scales. Bernstein’s Douglas Harned pushes further. His $248 target rests on Starship reusability. The company expects second-stage reuse in the fourth quarter of 2026. If that milestone arrives, the orbital data center story becomes real. Harned also sees the Connectivity business, mostly Starlink, generating more than $100 billion in EBITDA by 2031. Direct-to-device could add even more. That part still depends on a strong mobile network partner. The consensus sits at Moderate Buy. The build is 26 buys, five holds, and two sells. The average target is $232.07, implying 56% upside. Morgan Stanley is the most aggressive at $300. That is roughly double where the stock trades today. These analysts are not pricing a single rocket flight. They are pricing a future business model.
Trace the loop. Launch services get Starship to orbital capability. That capability deploys more Starlink capacity. The network pulls in connectivity revenue. Then the orbital data center piece enters. A hosting deal is the first evidence of paying customers for that compute layer. The reusability schedule controls everything. If second-stage reuse appears in late 2026, capital costs fall. If it slips, the valuation story weakens. Shay Boloor, a market commentator, compares SpaceX to Amazon and Tesla. Amazon started as a bookseller. Tesla looked like a car company. Both were re-priced as infrastructure stories. SpaceX may be repeating that pattern. The market still treats it as a rocket company. The real prize is an operator that owns launch, satellites, and compute. That is a concentrated position. There is risk in the path. The stock sits above the $135 IPO price but far below the June peak of $225.64. That gap is not a sign of failure. It is a measure of uncertainty. A failed flight would chill the narrative. A clean run would make the 2026 timeline louder. Musk claims SpaceX’s AI work will compete with Fable and GPT-6-level performance within two or three months. That claim deserves skepticism. The launch is the only near-term fact that matters. Watch the engine data. Watch the satellite deployment. Ignore the hype. If the vehicle performs, the analyst targets start to look conservative. If it does not, this $150 entry point becomes a trap. Monday is not the end of the debate. It is the first real test of the thesis. The second test is the reusability date. That is the date to mark on your calendar.
Author bio: Oliver Hawthorne, Principal Correspondent for an international technology review, covering infrastructure economics, capital markets, and the companies building next-generation physical networks.