(SeaPRwire) – By: Oliver Hawthorne
SpaceX’s post-IPO glow has faded into a full-blown stock slump, and the tension between its revolutionary tech promise and market skepticism has never been sharper. Investors are caught between bullish analysts who still see a path to $237 per share and short sellers who’ve already pocketed $15.5 billion in paper profits. The core anxiety isn’t just about delayed launches—it’s whether SpaceX can turn its ambitious hardware into consistent, revenue-driving growth before market patience runs out.
On Friday, SpaceX’s stock slipped 2.5% to $115.26, dragged down by back-to-back Starship test delays and a surprise Hold rating from HSBC. The stock is now down nearly 50% from its all-time high of $225.64 and 12% below its June IPO price of $135. The 13th Starship test flight was scrubbed twice: first on July 17 when several Raptor engines failed to ignite, then on July 23 due to weather that obscured heat shield visibility. SpaceX has replaced engines and run additional ground tests, with a new attempt scheduled for Friday evening. HSBC’s Nicolas Cote-Colisson broke from the pack—76% of analysts rate SpaceX a Buy—citing potential selling pressure from expiring lock-up periods and urging prudence. Short sellers hold 56% of freely tradable shares, and the stock has dropped in 17 of the past 26 trading sessions, including a seven-day losing streak. Alphabet disclosed a $94.1 billion stake in SpaceX as of June’s end, though the stock’s decline has trimmed that value. Falcon 9 launches remain steady, with 24 Starlink satellites sent up on July 21, but Starship’s troubles are dominating investor sentiment. The company’s first earnings report, due August 4, will hinge on Starlink’s growth metrics to reverse the slide.
The commercial loop tying Starship to SpaceX’s future is impossible to ignore. Starship is the only vehicle capable of deploying the next-gen Starlink V3 satellites efficiently, which are critical for expanding Starlink’s global coverage and revenue. Every delay pushes back that growth, giving short sellers more ammunition. If the upcoming Starship test fails or underperforms, and the earnings report shows stagnant Starlink growth, the stock will likely face further declines as lock-up periods expire and early investors cash out. The ultimate industry end-game here is a test of SpaceX’s ability to translate iterative hardware testing into tangible commercial progress. Without that, the bullish narrative of a transformative space company will give way to a reality of unmet promises and market correction.
Author bio: Oliver Hawthorne, Principal Correspondent at an international technology review, covers space tech and aerospace industry trends.