(SeaPRwire) – By: Logan Pierce
The Tesla Semi story reads like a redemption arc if you only read the headlines. High-volume production started this week at a new factory in Sparks, Nevada. The facility spans 1.7 million square feet and is designed for up to 50,000 trucks a year. The plant sits alongside the 4680 battery cell lines at Gigafactory Nevada, which should matter for battery supply continuity. Meanwhile, TSLA stock sits near $378, down roughly 16% since January. The market has seen better news from Tesla. The 2,500-truck ZET SCALE order sounds impressive on its face. But read the details. Tesla leads the deal. It does not fill it alone. This is real progress. But the market is unimpressed.
ZET SCALE is a newly formed freight coalition. It placed a 2,500-truck order for electric Class 8 vehicles. Tesla is the lead supplier. PACCAR’s Kenworth, RIDE, and Volvo Group also fill the order. Deliveries spread over several years to 10 hubs: Los Angeles, Houston, Chicago, Atlanta, and the New York area. Even if split evenly, Tesla’s portion tops its prior largest Semi deals. Earlier orders include 500 trucks from Einride in August and 370 from WattEV in May. PepsiCo and Microsoft separately placed 2,500 trucks through Catalyst Mobility this week. DHL and US Foods are also current Semi customers. The coalition structure suggests fleet operators want diversified supply. They are not betting everything on one vendor.
The Semi was first unveiled back in 2017. Limited deliveries began in 2022, but full production ramp kept getting delayed. Supply chain issues and battery constraints caused the delays. Deliveries to customers are set to begin this week. Tesla has not disclosed its current actual production rate. That opacity matters. The new Nevada facility sits next to the 4680 battery cell lines at Gigafactory Nevada. The long-range Semi travels up to 500 miles on a full charge. The standard version covers 325 miles. Tesla also plans to add autonomous-driving software to the Semi. No timeline has been given for that rollout. Customers need real production numbers before they can plan fleet budgets. Autonomy plans add long-term value for fleet buyers.
The Nevada plant is only part of the equation. Tesla plans to bring the Semi to Europe next year. But only the standard-range version at first. That creates a range problem. At the IAA Transportation show, BYD unveiled the ETT 44. It is a 44-tonne electric tractor with up to 1,000 horsepower and about 372 miles of range. Tesla’s standard Semi delivers 325 miles. The gap matters. Electricity costs less per mile than diesel. That is the main factor fleet operators weigh when switching. But BYD’s truck offers 47 more miles on paper. A truck that cannot cover a full regional haul without a stopover loses operational value. Tesla’s brand helps initially. But specs win fleet orders.
On the financials, the story gets murkier. Tesla’s automotive gross margin excluding regulatory credits fell to 16.3% last quarter. Energy storage margins dropped sharply too. They fell from 39.5% a year earlier to 20.4% now. TSLA carries a Moderate Buy consensus on TipRanks. 11 analysts rate Buy, 12 rate Hold, two rate Sell. The average price target sits at $388.85. That implies roughly 3% upside from current levels. The ZET SCALE deal does not move the stock. The production milestone does not move the stock. Investors are pricing in something the press release does not mention. Margin compression across both segments means Tesla cannot underprice the Semi. It needs volume at profit. The energy storage margin collapse signals broader pricing pressure.
BYD’s ETT 44 has 47 extra miles of range, and if Nevada output stalls below 500 trucks weekly, this 1.7 million square foot plant becomes an expensive monument to volume without profit.
Author bio: Logan Pierce is an independent business researcher and corporate governance writer who publishes analysis on Medium, focusing on heavy-industry supply chain dynamics and commercial vehicle market shifts.