Across the U.S., Thanksgiving provides an opportunity to savor the bounty of the autumn harvest, including items like sweet potatoes, pumpkin, turkey, and green beans.

However, rising temperatures affecting growing seasons and severe weather events destroying crops mean that farmers nationwide are encountering increasing difficulties in cultivating produce and raising animals.

Marcus Coleman, a Tulane University professor of practice specializing in food systems and agriculture, states that “Drought, shifts in temperature patterns across various regions of the country, natural disasters… all these factors influence the availability of food and farm products.”

is contributing to greater inconsistency in seasonal weather patterns, potentially affecting the growth cycles of many crops.

These difficulties are exemplified by two Thanksgiving essentials. Coleman notes that “Cranberries and apples both heavily rely on particular temperature conditions.” Cranberries need cooler temperatures during their growth phase to ripen before their autumn harvest; inconsistent temperatures can cause unusual blossoming, potentially resulting in reduced yields. Similarly, a late spring frost can destroy apple blossoms.

Conversely, turkeys are especially susceptible to intense heat.

Coleman explains that “Elevated temperatures heighten heat stress in poultry.” He adds, “In terms of supply, this could either decelerate their growth or increase the overall risk of mortality. It may also elevate production expenses, as farmers must implement measures to manage the heat and avoid affecting the birds’ output.”

While these shifts might not result in bare shelves during holiday shopping, they do suggest consumers should anticipate increased prices at checkout.

Mario Herrero, a professor of food systems and global change at Cornell University, asserts that “The effects of climate change on food production will undoubtedly translate into higher costs for consumers.” He elaborates, “Alterations in seasonality influence planting schedules. This will either make it more costly to sustain current yields, or we will have to simply accept a reduced supply—and a reduced supply coupled with our growing food demand results in elevated prices.”

Experts indicate that regardless, the expenses associated with our changing climate are transferred to consumers, often without their awareness.

Andrew Hultgren, an assistant professor of agricultural and consumer economics at the University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, states, “There is simply less food available, which can consequently push up global prices—and that begins to resemble inflation.”

According to data from the (AFBF), the typical cost for a 16-pound frozen turkey has decreased by over 16% compared to last year. The AFBF notes that as Americans consume 3 pounds less turkey annually than they did six years ago, retailers are trying to rekindle consumer interest by offering Thanksgiving promotions and reduced retail prices.

Conversely, prices for several side dishes are increasing. Sweet potatoes are anticipated to cost 37% more this year, as North Carolina, the nation’s leading sweet potato grower, is still recovering from Hurricane Helene last year.

Other items experiencing price increases included frozen green peas and vegetable trays with carrots and celery, which rose by 17.2% and 61% respectively. This is due to farmers nationwide confronting escalating costs for fertilizer, fuel, machinery, labor, and land. The AFBF points out that even minor interruptions in the supply chain can significantly affect fresh produce, and that persistent farmworker shortages alongside swiftly rising farm wages also contribute to higher produce expenses.

Coleman expresses hope that these changes could prompt individuals to purchase locally produced food—a practice that proves more in the long term.

He suggests, “I believe we might observe a move towards more regionalized production—with people relishing holiday essentials grown closer to their area, along with a greater demand for local food systems, local farmers’ markets, and fostering connections with local farmers.”

Understanding the origins of our food and the difficulties confronting farmers can also serve as a reminder to appreciate what we have—and to ensure Thanksgiving leftovers are not wasted.