(SeaPRwire) –   Four years prior, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine pushed gas prices to sharp highs, President Joe Biden proposed suspending the federal gas tax. Bipartisan lawmakers showed little enthusiasm for the plan, which would have sacrificed tens of billions in revenue allocated for roads and bridges in exchange for only modest savings at the fuel pump. 

Now, as gas prices near the same record highs seen in 2022 amid the Iran conflict, President Donald Trump has put forward the exact same proposal. This time, however, there could be greater support on Capitol Hill.

“I’m going to,” Trump told reporters on Monday when asked if he backed suspending the 18.4-cent-per-gallon federal gas tax, adding that prices would ultimately “plummet like a rock” once the conflict ends.

This debate highlights how drastically the affordability-focused political landscape has shifted amid the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a shipping lane critical to global oil supplies, which has disrupted worldwide markets. The Labor Department announced Tuesday that inflation rose faster in April than it has in any of the past three years, driven by surging fuel and food costs. With national average gas prices hovering around $4.50 per gallon, Republicans who previously dismissed gas tax holidays as fiscally irresponsible are now softening their opposition.

The idea already has bipartisan backing in Congress. In March, shortly after the conflict began, Senators Mark Kelly of Arizona and Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut introduced legislation to suspend the federal gas tax through Oct. 1. On Monday, Senator Josh Hawley of Missouri introduced a Republican-led version that would last between 90 and 180 days and also apply to diesel fuel.

“They’re late to the party, but better late than never,” Blumenthal told TIME. “The President’s support will hopefully build some momentum for the proposal within the Republican caucus.”

Senate Majority Leader John Thune, a Republican from South Dakota, said Monday he has not historically supported suspending the tax, warning that it would create “a big hole” in the Highway Trust Fund. “I think right now, the best thing that could happen for gas prices is for the Strait to reopen fully,” Thune told reporters.

This debate comes as both Democrats and Republicans are trying to frame themselves  ahead of the midterm elections as the party focused on affordability. Even small relief at the pump could give Trump the chance to take credit for acting aggressively to lower prices — potentially weakening a key Democratic argument against him.

“I’ll give him credit,” Kelly told TIME. “People need relief… He’s stuck and he’s out of ideas.”

But there is a reason the federal gas tax has not been suspended since it was established in 1932. The actual savings for consumers could be modest, while the financial cost to the federal government could be significant.

During the 2008 presidential campaign, then-Sen. Barack Obama criticized a similar proposal backed by bipartisan rivals. “We’re arguing over a gimmick that would save you half a tank of gas over the course of the entire summer,” Obama said at the time. “This isn’t an idea designed to get you through the summer, it’s designed to get them through an election.”

Limited savings

Suspending the federal gas tax would cut 18.4 cents off each gallon of gasoline and 24.4 cents off each gallon of diesel—though economists say consumers would likely see slightly smaller savings once market factors are factored in.

Research from the Bipartisan Policy Center estimated earlier this year that a tax suspension would likely lower pump prices by between 10 and 16 cents per gallon. For a driver filling a 16-gallon tank, that would translate to roughly $2 to $3 in savings per visit to the fuel station.

“It’s a small percentage but it’s still money,” Trump acknowledged Monday.

Kelly argued that even limited relief matters for families struggling with elevated costs amplified by the conflict. He pointed to gas prices in Phoenix sitting at $4.80 per gallon and described hearing from constituents who cannot afford long drives for medical care. “How many people like that are there across the country right now that just can’t afford to get anywhere?” he said.

The White House declined to comment on how long it would implement a pause on the federal gas tax, noting that Trump has said the measure would stay in place “until it’s appropriate.” Hawley’s bill would suspend the federal levy for 90 days, but could be extended to 180 days if the President determines “that economic conditions merit an additional suspension.” That later date would likely fall after the November midterm elections. 

Hawley told reporters Monday he had not spoken directly with Trump about his bill, and Trump has not signaled if he supports that timeline. Blumenthal said his proposed gas tax holiday may need to be extended past Oct. 1 as negotiations to reopen the Strait have made little progress.

Several states have tested their own gas tax holidays. Indiana and Georgia temporarily suspended their state gas taxes earlier this year, while Utah approved a six-month tax cut set to launch this summer. Other states, including New York and Pennsylvania, have considered similar measures.

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a nonpartisan group, estimated that a one-month federal gas tax holiday would cost roughly $3.5 billion in lost revenue, while a six-month suspension would cost about $21 billion and speed up the projected insolvency of the Highway Trust Fund. CRFB warned that any consumer savings would likely be partially offset by higher pre-tax gasoline prices and broader inflationary impacts.

The energy shock has become one of the most clear domestic political consequences of the conflict Trump initiated in February, with the issue emerging as a flashpoint in races across the country. As political pressure intensifies, even some conservatives who once outright rejected the idea are softening their opposition. Republican Sen. John Cornyn of Texas, who is in a tight primary race for re-election and previously called a gas tax holiday “a good way to bankrupt the country,” walked back those comments on Monday, saying he could support a temporary suspension.

“It reflects desperation in their party,” Blumenthal said. “Trump’s failure to act on this before now is part of the disastrous miscalculation he made in starting this war and failing to anticipate the obvious outcome that the Strait would be closed.”